Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that taking advantage of this high boom cycle of electrolytic aluminum and production capacity transfer opportunities, China's Hongqiao (01378) will have more sustainable development capabilities in the future and maintain a “superior to the market” rating. The company's entire industrial chain layout and adequate ore guarantee have benefited from the tight supply of bauxite and the sharp rise in alumina prices. The company's profitability is highly elastic to both aluminum prices and alumina prices. Prices of energy raw materials have fluctuated dramatically in the past few years. Future energy cost fluctuations will decrease, and the company's profitability will be more stable.
Guoxin Securities pointed out that Shandong Hongqiao, a subsidiary of China's Hongqiao, had unaudited balance sheets and profit statements for the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2024, Shandong Hongqiao had revenue of 38.02 billion yuan (+13.9% YoY, +2.0% YoY) and net profit of 5.96 billion yuan (+38.0% YoY, +9.4%).
According to the announcement, the company's main profit increase at the operating level: In the third quarter, the price of alumina in Shandong was 3,920 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from month to month. Shandong Hongqiao has a production capacity of 16.68 million tons of alumina and a production capacity of 5.67 million tons of aluminum electrolytic aluminum. Based on a unit consumption of 1.92 tons of aluminum oxide per ton, Shandong Hongqiao sells 5.79 million tons of alumina per year and 1.45 million tons per quarter. It is simply estimated that the price of alumina increased by 0.4 billion yuan month-on-month. In the third quarter, Yunnan's utility costs decreased by 0.12 yuan/kilowatt compared to the second quarter, and electricity costs decreased and profits increased by 0.4 billion yuan. In the third quarter, the price of raw pre-baked anodes fell by 250 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the price of pre-baked anodes fell by 0.15 billion yuan and increased profits by 0.15 billion yuan.
