营收降幅边际改善，息差企稳。2024 年前三季度，民生银行实现总营收约1016.6 亿元，同比下降4.37%，较年中增速提升1.8 个百分点。其中，净利息收入为737.43 亿元，同比下降4.49%，较年中增速提高0.87 个百分点；非息净收入为279.17 亿元，同比下降4.05%，较年中增速上升4.16 个百分点。2024 年前三季度，企业归母净利润同比变动为-9.21%。Incidents:
Minsheng Bank released financial results for the 3rd quarter of '24. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of about 101.66 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 30.486 billion yuan, YoY -9.21%; a non-performing ratio of 1.48%, and a non-performing provision coverage rate of 146.3%.
Review summary:
Revenue declines improved marginally, and interest spreads stabilized. In the first three quarters of 2024, Minsheng Bank achieved total revenue of about 101.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.37% and an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the mid-year growth rate. Among them, net interest income was 73.743 billion yuan, down 4.49% year on year, up 0.87 percentage points from mid-year growth; non-interest net income was 27.917 billion yuan, down 4.05% year on year, up 4.16 percentage points from mid-year growth. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net profit to mother changed -9.21% year over year.
Net interest spreads improved upward. In the first three quarters of 2024, Minsheng Bank's net interest spread was 1.40%, up 0.02 percentage points from mid-2024 (1.38%). As loan interest rates and deposit listing interest rates are adjusted in both directions in the second half of the year, the pressure on corporate interest spreads is expected to ease further in the future, and revenue capacity may also improve accordingly.
The level of liquidity coverage is improving. According to data for the first three quarters of 2024, Minsheng Bank's liquidity coverage rates were 140.6%, 140.6%, and 154.3%, respectively, indicating a further improvement in cushioning capacity to cope with potential future operating pressure.
Asset side: As of the first three quarters of 2024, Minsheng Bank's interest-bearing assets totaled 7353.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.2% over the previous quarter. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of loan investment was 0.4%, which changed from negative to positive with 24H1 (-1.7%), an increase of 2.4 percentage points.
Debt side: As of the first three quarters of 2024, Minsheng Bank's interest-bearing debt balance was 6839.8 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% over the previous month. Among them, the growth rate of absorbed deposits was 3.0% month-on-month, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive with 24H1 (-4.4%), an increase of 7.4 percentage points.
The overall quality of assets remains stable. As of the first three quarters of 2024, Minsheng Bank's non-performing loan balance was 65.6 billion yuan, accounting for 1.48%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points over 24H1, and is still in a stable range since the end of last year. The corporate loan provision rate and non-performing provision coverage rate for the first three quarters of 2024 were 2.16% and 146.3%, respectively, down 0.03 and 3.0 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Profit Forecast and Valuation:
Minsheng Bank's 24Q3 interest spreads stabilized, and asset quality remained stable. We forecast the year-on-year changes in the company's net profit to mother in 2024-2026 to be -1.11%, 1.21%, and 3.21%, corresponding to current BPS prices:
13.22, 14.42, 15.65 yuan. We used the dividend discount model to estimate a target price of 4.63 yuan, corresponding to 0.35xPb in 24 years, 20% of the current price space, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic shocks, sharp exposure of non-performing assets, high pressure on interest spreads
