The company released its 2024 three-quarter report

The first three quarters of 2024 achieved operating income of 39.186 billion yuan, +31.67% year over year; realized net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, +52.49% year over year; realized net profit of 3.682 billion yuan without return to mother, +48.81% year over year.

Among them, Q3 achieved operating income of 14.538 billion yuan, +9.39% month-on-month, net profit of 1.301 billion yuan, -3.99% month-on-month and +31.42% year-on-year; net profit of 1.294 billion yuan without return to mother, or -4.32% month-on-month, and +31.58% year-on-year.

The price of alumina raw materials has risen, and the price of aluminum has fluctuated, and production is rising steadily

Price: According to Wind, the average price of 2024Q3 Shanghai Aluminum was 1,657 yuan/ton, -986 yuan/ton (-4.8%) month-on-month, and +1007 yuan/ton (+5.4%) year-on-year. The average price of 2024Q3 alumina futures was 3,864 yuan/ton, +140 yuan/ton (+3.8%) month-on-month, and +927 yuan/ton (+31.6%) year-on-year. The average price of pre-baked anodes in 2024Q3 was 3,970 yuan/ton, -187 yuan (-4.5%) month-on-month and -452 yuan (-10.2%) year-on-year.

Volume: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 1.0732 million tons of alumina, 0.5986 million tons of carbon products, 2.148 million tons of raw aluminum, and 0.91 million tons of aluminum alloy and processed aluminum products. Among them, Q3 produced 0.3502 million tons of alumina, -2.01%; produced 0.2011 million tons of carbon products, +1.00%; produced 0.7973 million tons of raw aluminum, +11.70% month-on-month; and produced 0.3223 million tons of aluminum alloy and aluminum processing products, +4.24% month-on-month.

Electrolytic aluminum production at full capacity. Electrolytic aluminum achieved the annual output target of 79.6% The company's main production and operation goals in 2024 are about 1.4 million tons of alumina (76.7% completed), 2.7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum (79.6% completed), about 1.26 million tons of aluminum alloy and processed products (72.2% completed), and about 0.8 million tons of carbon products (74.8% completed). The company accelerated the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity was greatly increased, and production was achieved at full capacity in the third quarter. At the same time, the company carried out all-factor benchmarking and various tasks to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and continued to increase marketing efforts. The company's aluminum product production and sales increased dramatically compared to the same period, and business performance increased year-on-year.

Investment advice:

We expect the company to achieve operating income of 54.965, 52.491, and 54.261 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, with net profit of 4.817, 5.541, and 5.887 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.60, and 1.70 yuan/share, respectively. Currently, the corresponding PE price is 10.8, 9.4, and 8.8 times. The company maintained a “buy-A” rating, and the target price for 6 months was raised to 16.7 yuan/share, corresponding to about 12 times PE in 24 years.

Risk warning: Demand falls short of expectations, product prices fluctuate, limited voltage production exceeds expectations, environmental risks and project progress fall short of expectations.