Jingu Financial News | First Shanghai issued a research report, GCL Tech (03800) reported a shareholder net loss of approximately 2.97 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a quarterly loss of approximately 1.49 billion yuan, mainly due to a significant year-on-year decrease in the average prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers. The shareholder net profits for the first three quarters were 0.033 billion yuan/-1.512 billion yuan/-1.492 billion yuan respectively, with performance in the quarter stabilizing.

The bank expressed optimism for the continued cost reduction and quality improvement of granular silicon, as well as the gradual increase in downstream application penetration. The future average price of silicon materials is expected to be maintained in the range of 45-50 yuan/kg (including tax) under the background of industry self-discipline or capacity restriction policies. The company's granular silicon is expected to lead the industry in unit profitability; however, in the short term, due to high industry inventory levels, there is still pressure on silicon material prices.

The bank correspondingly lowered the average price of silicon materials in the second half of the year and the company's performance in 24H2, while raising the central price of silicon materials for 25-26 years to reflect the industry's positive outlook. It is expected that the company's shareholders' attributable profit for 2024-2026 will be -3.2/1/3 billion yuan, raising the target price for the next twelve months to 1.90 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to a 2024 forecast price-to-book ratio of 1.0 times and 45/15 times for 2025-2026.Estimated P/E ratio.Maintain a buy rating.