As you might know, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$4.8b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Automatic Data Processing surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.34 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Automatic Data Processing after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Automatic Data Processing's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$20.4b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 4.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.3% to US$9.94. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$20.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.04 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.2% to US$298. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Automatic Data Processing at US$325 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$280. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Automatic Data Processing is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 6.0% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.9% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.7% per year. It's clear that while Automatic Data Processing's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Automatic Data Processing going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Automatic Data Processing .

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