单季度收入持平，归母利润环比有所下滑。2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入23.9 亿元，同比+98.55%；实现归母净利润9.8 亿元，同比+122.39%。其中2024Q3 实现营收8.4 亿元，同比+54.77%，环比+1.76%；实现归母净利润3.2 亿元，同比+58.69%，环比-14.14%。我们认为收入环比保持平稳主要系下游客户需求保持平稳，各产品线出货情况未有明显变化。Matters:
The company released the “Report for the Third Quarter of 2024”. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.39 billion yuan, +98.55% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 0.98 billion yuan, or +122.39% year-on-year.
Commentary:
Revenue remained flat in the single quarter, and profit to mother declined month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.39 billion yuan, +98.55% year-on-year; realized net profit of 0.98 billion yuan, or +122.39% year-on-year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.84 billion yuan, +54.77% year over month, and realized net profit of 0.32 billion yuan to mother, +58.69% year over year, -14.14% month on month. We believe that revenue remained stable month-on-month mainly because downstream customer demand remained stable, and there was no significant change in the shipment situation of each product line.
The net interest rate fell back to the Q1 level, dragged down by exchange losses. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 58.21%, and the net profit margin was 40.83%. The 2024Q3 gross profit margin was 59.04%, which is basically the same as Q2 (59.77%), but the net margin was only 38.41%, a sharp drop from Q2 (45.58%), which is comparable to the level of Q1 (38.24%). We believe that the company's net profit was greatly affected by exchange rate changes. 2024Q3's financial expenses were 0.018 billion yuan, up 0.055 billion yuan from the second quarter (-0.037 billion yuan). If the difference is added, the profitability of 2024Q3 is comparable to 2024Q2.
Wait for the release of advantageous new products. Overall, the company continues to maintain steady mass production, dynamically adjusts monthly production according to customer needs and material supply conditions, and strives to meet customer delivery requirements. Meanwhile, next-generation product companies will cooperate with customers to speed up the production process. We believe that with mass shipments of next-generation superior products, the company will experience significant growth in both revenue and performance.
Investment advice: The company is an industry-leading overall solution provider for optical devices. With the demand for high-speed optical module updates and iteration generated by global AI computing power construction, the company's optical device products are expected to benefit the core. The company maintains high R&D investment, strengthens technical pre-research, quickly meets customer needs, and is expected to achieve rapid growth in the future.
Since there is no clear shipping time for the new product, we adjusted the company's 24-26 revenue forecast to 3.382, 6.036, and 8.133 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit to mother to 13.32, 23.11, and 31.16 billion yuan (previously 14.70, 22.74, 30.42) billion yuan. Maintain a “strong” rating.
Risk warning: Global AI computing power side construction falls short of expectations, competition within the optical device industry intensifies, and mainstream customer optical interconnection solutions have undergone major changes
