YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC.(09987.HK):INCREASED CAPITAL RETURNS
YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC.(09987.HK):INCREASED CAPITAL RETURNS
New store models. The side-by-side KCOFFEE cafe store has lower operating cost by sharing the same kitchen with a KFC store. The number of this model increased from c.300 in July to 500 in November and is expected to reach 600+ by end-2024. Pizza Hut WOW store model was introduced in May, and the number exceeded 150 by November and is expected to reach 200+ by end-2024.Yum China reported 3Q24 revenue of US$3.07bn (+5% YoY) and core operating profit of US$369m (+18% YoY), higher than our expectation, thanks to higher-than-expected same-store sales and operating efficiency improvement. We raise 2024E EPS forecast from US$2.14 to US$2.24, 2025E forecast from US$2.36 to US$2.4, and 2026E forecast from US$2.56 to US$2.61. We raise target price from HK$408 to HK$440, and with 22% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating.
百勝中國報告了2024年第三季度營業收入爲30.7億美元（同比增長5%）和核心營業利潤爲36900萬美元（同比增長18%），高於我們的預期，得益於高於預期的同店銷售和營業效率改善。我們將2024年預期每股收益從2.14美元上調至2.24美元，2025年預期從2.36美元上調至2.4美元，2026年預期從2.56美元上調至2.61美元。我們將目標價從408港元上調至440港元，預計上漲22%，我們維持買入評級。
Healthy store payback. In 3Q24, the company opened a net of 438 new stores. The total number of stores reached 15,861, including 11,283 KFC outlets, 3,606 Pizza Hut outlets, and 972 outlets for other brands. In 3Q24 YTD, 58% of KFC's new stores were opened in lower-tier cities (defined as third to sixth-tier cities), and 27% of KFC's new stores were franchise stores. For Pizza Hut, 60% of the new stores were located in lower-tier cities, and 7% of new stores were franchise stores. The payback period has been maintained at 2 years for KFC and 2-3 years for Pizza Hut. The company anticipates the franchise mix of net new stores will gradually increase to 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut over the next few years.
健康的門店回報。在2024年第三季度，公司淨新增門店438家。門店總數達到15,861家，包括11,283家肯德基門店，3,606家必勝客門店和972家其他品牌門店。2024年第三季度至今，58%的肯德基新門店在低線城市（定義爲三到六線城市）開業，27%的肯德基新門店爲加盟店。對於必勝客，60%的新門店位於低線城市，7%的新門店爲加盟店。肯德基的回本期仍然爲2年，必勝客爲2-3年。公司預計未來幾年新增門店的特許經營比例將逐漸增加到肯德基的40-50%和必勝客的20-30%。
Resilient same-store sales. During 3Q24, KFC's total system sales increased 6% YoY, while same-store sales growth (sssg) decreased 2% YoY, with transaction up 1% and average ticket price down 3%. The average ticket price was Rmb38, versus Rmb36 in 3Q19. Pizza Hut's total system sales increased 2% YoY, while sssg decreased 6% YoY, with transaction up 4% and average ticket price down 9%. The average ticket price was Rmb82, which declined from Rmb110 in 3Q19.
同店銷售表現強勁。在2024年第三季度，肯德基的總系統銷售額同比增長6%，而同店銷售增長率下降2%，交易量增長1%，平均票價下降3%。平均票價爲38人民幣，而2019年第三季度爲36人民幣。必勝客的總系統銷售額同比增長2%，而同店銷售增長率下降6%，交易量增長4%，平均票價下降9%。平均票價爲82人民幣，較2019年第三季度的110人民幣有所下降。
New store models. The side-by-side KCOFFEE cafe store has lower operating cost by sharing the same kitchen with a KFC store. The number of this model increased from c.300 in July to 500 in November and is expected to reach 600+ by end-2024. Pizza Hut WOW store model was introduced in May, and the number exceeded 150 by November and is expected to reach 200+ by end-2024.
新門店模式。KCoffee咖啡店與肯德基門店共用廚房，降低運營成本。這種模式的數量從7月的大約300家增加到11月的500家，並預計到2024年底將達到600家以上。必勝客的WOW店模式於5月推出，截至11月數量超過150家，並預計到2024年底將達到200家以上。
Increased capital returns. The company targets to increase capital returns by 50% in 2024-2026 from US$3bn to US$4.5bn, including US$1.5bn in 2024.
公司計劃在2024-2026年將資本回報率提高50%，從30億美元增加到45億美元，其中包括在2024年的15億美元。
Maintain Buy. We like the company's innovation ability, diversified store types, as well as an industry-leading supply chain management and digital system. We raise target price from HK$408 to HK$440, and with 22% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating
維持買入評級。我們喜歡該公司的創新能力、多元化的門店類型，以及行業領先的供應鏈管理和數字化系統。我們將目標價從408港元提高到440港元，上漲潛力達22％，我們維持買入評級
Risks: Lower-than-expected sssg; negative news and food safety incidents.
風險：低於預期的SSSG；負面資訊和食品安全事件。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
