光大证券指出，三季度以来，欧线、美西的运力投放持续加速，逐步抵消地缘政治事件对运价的影响，集运现货运价快速下行，但仍高于2023年同期水平。后市需求方面，美国进入降息周期，企业投资维持平稳，欧洲消费者信心回升，美国库存周期整体处于主动补库的早期阶段，预计明年欧美补库需求仍有望得到支撑。供给方面，24年全球集装箱船队运力同比增速将达到10.2%，但由于24年新签合同量低于21-22年，25-26年集装箱船运力投放有望放缓，长期运力增长有望达到均衡。Marine transportation stocks rose across the board in the morning. As of the time of publication, Dalian Maritime Transport (02510) rose by 6.03% to 4.57 Hong Kong dollars; SITC International (01308) rose by 2.46% to 22.95 Hong Kong dollars; OOIL (01308) rose by 1.42% to 114.4 Hong Kong dollars; COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) rose by 0.96% to 12.62 Hong Kong dollars.
Zhixin Finance and Economics APP learned that marine transportation stocks rose across the board in the morning. As of the time of publication, Dalian Maritime Transport (02510) rose by 6.03% to 4.57 Hong Kong dollars; SITC International (01308) rose by 2.46% to 22.95 Hong Kong dollars; OOIL (00316) rose by 1.42% to 114.4 Hong Kong dollars; COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) rose by 0.96% to 12.62 Hong Kong dollars.
Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that in the middle and late November, there was a general rate increase, with ONE raising its rates from the 47th week, increasing the rate for large units from the previous $4604 to $5004, Hapag-Lloyd raising the rate for large units to $5500, OOCL following suit, and as of November 15, the rate for large units was raised to $5550. Currently, the basis 12 and 02 are both pricing based on the recent price announcements by shipping companies. The market's expectations for the peak season are still strong, but whether the announced price increases will be substantially implemented remains to be seen.
Everbright Securities pointed out that since the third quarter, the deployment of capacity on Europe routes and the US West Coast has continued to accelerate, gradually offsetting the impact of geopolitical events on freight rates. The spot freight rates for container shipping have rapidly declined, but are still higher than the levels of the same period in 2023. In terms of future demand, the United States has entered an interest rate reduction cycle, corporate investment remains stable, European consumer confidence is rising, the US inventory cycle is still in the early stage of active restocking, and it is expected that next year the demand for restocking in Europe and the US will continue to be supported. In terms of supply, the year 2024 will see a 10.2% year-on-year increase in global container shipping fleet capacity, but due to the low volume of new contracts in 2024 compared to 2021-2022, the deployment of container shipping capacity in 2025-2026 is expected to slow down, with long-term capacity growth expected to reach a balance.
