With the slow announcement of election results, some highly anxious investors will focus on fluctuations before sunrise and adjust their bets.

Wall Street's 'big money' is already prepared to deal with this 'coin-toss' style election that could greatly change policies. Overnight trading desks will continue to operate, with teams in Hong Kong and Singapore joining to assist. Investors are closely watching the 'Trump trade' – being long on the dollar, shorting bonds, and preparing to quickly increase or decrease positions when necessary.

Unprecedented election season response measures

A hedge fund in London has specifically activated an 'impact' computer model for this moment. Major banks are also preparing for possible risks, even though the risk of voter violence is minimal – this scenario will shake the United States, the world, and the global financial markets.

"November 5 will be like a blindfolded mud wrestling match in a minefield," said Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at Singapore's Blue Edge Advisors. "The election is so tense and path-dependent that trading becomes exceptionally difficult."

Stay as long as you can

JPMorgan plans to increase staff in Europe and Asia to cope with overnight trading volumes and volatility; Goldman Sachs expects its hundreds of sales and trading team members to stay late into the night in New York. American employees across the industry are preparing to work all night.

"We'll stay as long as we need to – if it's until 2 in the morning, it's 2 in the morning. Even if we need to stay overnight, we will do so, although it's never happened on election night before," said Glen Capelo, managing director at Mischler Financial Group and experienced for over 30 years at the Wall Street bond trading desk. "We do indeed believe that many things could happen."

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump make their final statements to voters, the financial industry is studying the potential impact of this historic tense situation. Currently, the market believes Trump will win. Stocks are rising, the dollar and cryptos are strengthening, and bond yields are climbing. If Harris wins, Trump trades could quickly reverse, causing dramatic market volatility overnight.

Despite the relative calm in the stock market, the volatility of stock market options has been increasing recently, indicating that investors are hedging to prevent post-election market fluctuations.

Rarely close polls.

Economists say that Trump's proposed plans, particularly tax cuts and import tariffs, are more likely to increase national debt and inflation than Harris's policies. Regardless of the election outcome, the policies of the next government will impact nearly all industries and investments.

Currently, Wall Street and most of America are hoping to get through Tuesday smoothly. Hedge fund managers in New York are paying special attention to Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, with Marko Papic, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, saying, "I'm trying to talk about stock or bond trading, and the Chief Investment Officer is wondering if the U.S. could erupt into a civil war."

The swing states' polls are unusually close before the election. Marc Sumerlin, former economic policy adviser in the Bush administration, said that even if Trump wins, traders may underestimate the potential impact of delayed or contested election results.

"Investors seem to have not made extraordinary preparations for election day volatility, as emotions shifted from not knowing who would win to now seeing a frontrunner: Trump," Sumerlin said, "People are betting on this, instead of hedging against the election's uncertainty."

Market traders are preparing to deal with the election results being announced in batches.

Unless there is a clear overwhelming victory in the voting, traders will turn to staggered reporting overnight. Early results from Michigan (which has adopted new rules to expedite the processing of absentee ballots) may foreshadow the results of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which will handle mail-in ballots later.

Of course, legal challenges from either side could complicate the results. Hedge fund manager and Trump economic advisor Scott Bessent, who bought stocks during the 2016 night volatility, correctly believed that the results were not worth market panic. 'But if Hillary Clinton had conceded back then instead of sending out campaign chairman John Podesta, I would have bought more,' he said.

Some traders were hurt by the 2016 election where polling favored Hillary Clinton, and few predicted Trump's victory. As the results became clearer, the U.S. futures market crashed and then recovered. The next two days became the period with the highest trading volume in the U.S. stock market in the second half of that year. In 2020, it was four days after the voting ended before Biden's victory was officially announced, and the trading volume reached a six-month high when the results were revealed.

Election night is not for low-carb meals.

For Kellie Wood, a fund manager at Schroders in Sydney, November 5 means another reason to focus on the screen. She is betting on higher inflation expectations and hedging against possible immigration restrictions and new tariffs that Trump may introduce, while protectively buying investment-grade and high-yield bonds in the event of a Harris victory, 'because higher taxes on U.S. corporations and higher-income individuals could be detrimental to stocks and credit,' she said.

Many investors seem excitedly prepared with coffee and carbohydrates - 'election night is not for low-carb meals,' a trader joked - whether they are buying, selling, or just watching.