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We Think Hub Group (NASDAQ:HUBG) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Hub Group (NASDAQ:HUBG) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲hub group (納斯達克:HUBG)有能力控制債務
Simply Wall St ·  11/04 20:04

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理李錄(得到查理·曼格的支持)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險並不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受到資本的永久損失。」因此,聰明人知道,債務(通常涉及破產)是評估公司風險時非常重要的因素。與許多其他公司一樣,hub group公司(納斯達克:HUBG)也利用債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務產生了多大的風險?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候負債才是一個問題?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務可以幫助業務,直到業務出現了無法借新的資本或自由現金流還債的問題。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能將一無所獲。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東的權益,以加強其資產負債表。當然,很多公司使用債務來資助成長,並沒有任何負面後果。在考慮企業債務水平時,第一步是考慮現金流和債務的總和。

How Much Debt Does Hub Group Carry?

Hub Group 承擔了多少債務?

As you can see below, Hub Group had US$287.1m of debt at September 2024, down from US$346.6m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$186.1m, its net debt is less, at about US$101.0m.

正如下面所示,Hub Group在2024年9月的債務爲28710萬美元,比前一年的34660萬美元減少。然而,由於其擁有18610萬美元的現金儲備,其淨債務更少,約爲10100萬美元。

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NasdaqGS:HUBG Debt to Equity History November 4th 2024
納斯達克:HUBG負債股本比歷史數據截至2024年11月4日

A Look At Hub Group's Liabilities

hub group的負債情況

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Hub Group had liabilities of US$617.9m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$588.9m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$186.1m and US$582.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$438.7m.

我們可以從最近的資產負債表看出,hub group有US$61790萬的短期到期負債,以及US$58890萬的長期到期負債。另一方面,它有US$18610萬的現金和US$58200萬的應收賬款,這些都是一年內到期的。因此,它的負債超過了其現金和(短期)應收賬款之和43870萬美元。

Since publicly traded Hub Group shares are worth a total of US$2.65b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

由於公開交易的hub group股票總值爲US$26.5億,這種水平的負債似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。話雖如此,很明顯我們應該繼續監控其資產負債表,以免情況惡化。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。

Hub Group's net debt is only 0.31 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 23.6 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In fact Hub Group's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 52% in the last twelve months. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hub Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

hub group的淨債務僅爲其EBITDA的0.31倍。 它的EBIT輕鬆覆蓋了利息支出,爲其大小的23.6倍。因此,我們對其超保守的債務使用感到相當放心。事實上,hub group的救星是其低債務水平,因爲其EBIT在過去十二個月中暴跌了52%。當一家公司看到其盈利下滑時,有時可能會發現其與貸款人的關係變得惡化。毫無疑問,我們最多從資產負債表了解債務。但最重要的是未來的盈利,這將決定hub group能否保持健康的資產負債表。所以,如果你想了解專業人士的看法,你可能會覺得有必要查看關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Hub Group recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,業務需要有自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不夠。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是查看EBIT中實際自由現金流所佔比例。在最近的三年中,hub group錄得了相當於其EBIT的78%的自由現金流,這在正常情況下是可以理解的,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅金。這種自由現金流使公司有足夠的實力在適當時期償還債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Happily, Hub Group's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its EBIT growth rate. All these things considered, it appears that Hub Group can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hub Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

高興的是,hub group令人印象深刻的利息覆蓋率意味着它在債務方面佔據上風。 但嚴酷的事實是,我們對其EBIt增長率感到擔憂。 考慮到所有這些因素,似乎hub group可以輕鬆處理其當前的債務水平。 當然,雖然這種槓桿可以增加股本回報率,但也帶來更多風險,因此值得密切關注。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中最了解債務的情況。 然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表之內,遠非如此。 我們已經識別出1個對hub group的警告信號,了解它們應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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