Ryanair Targets 8% Traffic Growth In FY25, Contingent On Boeing Deliveries; Full-Year Unit Costs Expected To Remain Flat; Q3 Fares To Decline Modestly, With Limited Q4 Visibility
Ryanair Targets 8% Traffic Growth In FY25, Contingent On Boeing Deliveries; Full-Year Unit Costs Expected To Remain Flat; Q3 Fares To Decline Modestly, With Limited Q4 Visibility
We continue to target between 198m and 200m passengers in FY25 (+8%), subject to no worsening of current Boeing delivery delays. Unit costs performed well in H1 as the cost gap between Ryanair and EU competitor airlines continues to widen. We expect full-year unit costs to be broadly flat, as our fuel hedge savings, strong interest income and some modest aircraft delay compensation will largely offset ex-fuel cost inflation (particularly crew pay & productivity increases, higher handling & ATC fees and the cost inefficiency of repeated B737 delivery delays). Forward bookings suggest that Q3 demand is strong and the decline in pricing appears to be moderating. We remain cautious on Q3's ave. fare outlook, expecting them to be modestly lower than Q3 prior year (subject to close-in Christmas and New Year bookings). As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero Q4 visibility, although this quarter will not benefit from last year's early Easter, which will make the prior year Q4 comps challenging. It therefore remains too early to provide meaningful FY25 PAT guidance. The final FY25 outcome will be subject to avoiding adverse developments during the remaining 5 months of FY25, especially given the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, repeated ATC short-staffing and capacity restrictions, and/or further Boeing delivery delays."
我們繼續將FY25的乘客目標定在19800萬至20000萬人之間(+8%),前提是不會惡化當前波音的交付延誤情況。H1的單位成本表現良好,因爲ryanair與歐盟競爭對手航空公司之間的成本差距繼續擴大。我們預計全年單位成本將基本持平,因爲我們的燃油套期保值節省、強勁的利息收入以及一些適度的飛機延誤補償將大體上抵消除燃油成本通脹(尤其是機組工資和生產力提高、更高的地面處理和空中交通管制費用以及重複B737交付延誤的成本低效)外的其他成本上漲。預訂情況顯示,Q3的需求強勁,價格下降似乎在逐漸減緩。我們對Q3的平均票價前景表示謹慎,預計將略低於前一年Q3(取決於聖誕節和新年的臨近預訂)。像往常一樣,今年這個時候,我們對Q4幾乎沒有任何可見度,儘管本季度將無法受益於去年的提前復活節,使得去年同期Q4的對比數據具有挑戰性。因此,在這個時間點上提供有意義的FY25PAt指導仍然爲時過早。最終FY25的結果將取決於在FY25剩餘5個月中避免不利發展的能力,特別是考慮到烏克蘭和中東地區的衝突風險、重複的空中交通管制人員短缺和能力限制,以及/或者進一步的波音交付延遲。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。