Q3 业绩加速趋势不变，云计算深度赋能公司发展。单Q3 季度来看，工业富联营收、归母净利润环比增长率分别为15.52%、40.57%，业绩持续高增主要得益于云计算业务（服务器）及网络通讯业务的强劲增长。1）云计算业务方面，公司前三季度云计算业务营收同比+71%，其中AI 服务器分支同比+228%，占服务器营收比重提升至45%，这一比值在Q3 为48%；同时通用服务器回温持续，前三季度营收同比+22%；2）网络通讯业务方面，400/800G 交换机、WiFi 及SmartNIC/DPU 板卡持续推进网络通讯业务，其中400/800G 高速交换机Q3 营收同环比+128%、27%，SmartNIC/DPU 前三季度营收同比+200%。Incident Overview
On October 30, 2024, IFF released its third quarter report. According to the quarterly report data, in the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved operating income of 436.373 billion yuan, an increase of 32.71% year on year; net profit to mother was 15.141 billion yuan, an increase of 12.28% year on year. According to Q3 data, the company achieved operating income of 170.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.53%; realized net profit to mother of 6.402 billion yuan, an increase of 1.24% over the previous year, and its ability to increase revenue and profit increased rapidly.
Core views
Q3 The trend of accelerated performance did not change, and cloud computing deeply empowered the company's development. Looking at the Q3 quarter alone, IFC's revenue and net profit growth rates were 15.52% and 40.57%, respectively. Continued high performance growth was mainly due to strong growth in cloud computing (server) and network communication services. 1) In terms of cloud computing business, the company's cloud computing business revenue in the first three quarters was +71%, of which the AI server branch increased to 45% in Q3. At the same time, general-purpose servers continued to pick up, and revenue for the first three quarters was +22%; 2) In terms of network communication business, 400/800G switches, WiFi, and SmartNIC/DPU boards continued to promote the network communication business. Among them, 400/800G high-speed switch Q3 revenue was +128% and 27% year-on-year SmartNIC/DPU's revenue in the first three quarters was +200% year-on-year.
The ability to control expenses is outstanding, and the profit margin level is significantly optimized. In terms of expenses, the company's ability to control three fees continued to be stable. The management fee rate for the Q3 quarter of '24 was basically consistent from month to month, and the R&D expense ratio decreased by 0.44 percentage points. Good cost control raised the level of profit margins. In terms of profit margins, gross margin and net profit margin increased to 6.97% and 3.76%, respectively. We believe that with the continuous optimization of the company's cost control, the level of gross profit margin and net interest rate is expected to slowly rise over a long period of time.
Looking forward to the future, Fulian's core growth points are mainly focused on the following two aspects: 1) B200 and GB200 series products are expected to start shipping in 2024Q4 and 2025Q1. IFF is expected to benefit deeply from the significant expansion in AI server demand; 2) AI phones have the characteristics of high energy consumption and high heat dissipation, and require high control of metal materials. Fulian has mastered many materials and process technologies with plasticity, heat dissipation, and colorability of high-end models. The future will also further benefit from the development of AI phones.
Investment advice
As AI infrastructure construction accelerates and downstream AI applications continue to prosper, the company, as a close partner of Nvidia, is expected to continue to benefit from the trend of long-term AI expansion. We expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 5988.53, 7238.07, and 787.083 billion yuan, up 25.72%, 20.87%, and 8.74% year-on-year; achieving net profit to mother of 25.531, 31.766, and 36.401 billion yuan, up 21.35%, 24.42%, and 14.59% year-on-year, corresponding PE is 18/15/13 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The commercialization of AI models fell short of expectations; investment by North American cloud vendors fell short of expectations; macroeconomics fell short of expectations, etc.
