2024Q3 集团毛利率为9.6%，同环比分别-0.8/+1.4pct。3）费用率：2024Q3销售/ 管理/ 研发费用率分别为4.7%/3.8%/2.6% ， 同比分别+0.7/+0.8/+0.5pct，环比分别+0.4/+0.5/+0.0pct。4）投资收益：2024Q3 公司投资净收益17.9 亿元，同环比分别-61.1%/-68.7%，其中对联营和合营企业的投资收益为10.6 亿元，同比-62.3%，环比大幅改善，上汽大众Q3 批发销量为26.0 万辆，同环比分别-21.0%/-1.5%，上汽通用Q3 批发销量为5.3 万辆，同环比分别-80.6%/-53.6%。5）Q3 公允价值变动收益为12.8 亿元，环比+133.1%，主要原因为包括股票在内的金融资产在9 月30 日录得较高收益。6）最终公司2024Q3 归母净利润2.8 亿元，同环比分别-93.5%/-92.9%；扣非后归母净利润0.3 亿元，同环比分别-99.2%/-102.6%。Key points of investment
Company announcement: 2024Q3 achieved total operating income of 145.8 billion yuan, -25.9%/3.0% year-on-month; net investment income of 1.79 billion yuan, -61.1%/-68.7%, year-on-month; net profit to mother of 0.28 billion yuan, -93.5%/-92.9% year-on-month, respectively; net profit of 0.03 billion yuan after deducting net income to mother, -99.2%/-102.6%.
2024Q3 performance falls short of expectations: 1) Revenue: The reason why revenue is still improving month-on-month under pressure from Huayu Auto is: Huayu Auto's Q3 revenue increase & SAIC Motor's product structure improvement. The wholesale sales volume of 2024Q3 SAIC Motor Group was 0.822 million vehicles, -17.2%, respectively; bicycle ASP (approximate calculation of total group revenue/total sales volume) was 0.177 million yuan, -6.78%/-16.84% month-on-month, respectively. 2) Gross profit margin:
2024Q3 Group's gross margin was 9.6%, -0.8/+1.4pct, respectively. 3) Expense rate: 2024Q3 sales/management/ R&D expenses were 4.7%/3.8%/2.6%, respectively, +0.7/+0.8/+0.5pct year-on-year, and +0.4/+0.5/+0.0pct, respectively. 4) Investment income: 2024Q3's net investment income was 1.79 billion yuan, -61.1%/-68.7%, of which investment income for joint ventures and joint ventures was 1.06 billion yuan, -62.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement over the previous month. SAIC Volkswagen's Q3 wholesale sales volume was 0.26 million vehicles, -21.0%/-1.5%, respectively. SAIC-GM Q3 wholesale sales volume was 0.053 million vehicles, -80.6%/-53.6% year-on-month. 5) Earnings from changes in fair value in Q3 were 1.28 billion yuan, +133.1% month-on-month. The main reason was that financial assets, including stocks, recorded higher returns on September 30. 6) In the end, the company's 2024Q3 net profit was 0.28 billion yuan, -93.5%/-92.9% month-on-month; net profit without deduction was 0.03 billion yuan, or -99.2%/-102.6% month-on-month.
Profit forecast and investment rating: 1) Independent brand new energy+ exports go hand in hand: the company's core technology, new energy three-power system+intelligent software and hardware full-stack layout, smart self promotion of high-end independent brands, strives to consolidate infrastructure markets such as Western Europe and South America in terms of exports, accelerate the expansion of emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, and continue to improve overseas service systems. At the same time, it is actively responding to EU countervailing investigations. 2) Active transformation of the joint venture: The company signed a memorandum of understanding with Audi to jointly develop a variety of new smart electric models for the Chinese market; integrated superior resources with GM to establish a new software and digitization center in SAIC-GM; SAIC Volkswagen actively adjusted its marketing strategy to accelerate the brand's voice in the new energy vehicle market. Due to pressure on GM's operations, our own brands have yet to be released. We lowered the company's 2024 performance forecast to 10/9.3/12.3 billion yuan (originally 14.465 billion yuan/14.155/16.504 billion yuan), which is equivalent to 15/16/12 times PE. Maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: terminal price war exceeds expectations; export-related trade risks, etc.