3Q24 收入同环比双增，毛利率受会计准则变更影响。根据IDC，3Q24 全球智能手机出货量同比增长4%至3.16 亿部。受益消费电子需求复苏、动力及储能业务持续推进，3Q24 收入同/环比分别增长18.85%/10.95%。3Q24 毛利率同/环比分别增长0.71ppt/减少1.57ppt 至15.07%，我们判断同比增长主因电芯自供率提升，公司公告1-3Q24 消费电芯自供率已超35%；环比下降主因受会计准则调整及产品结构变化影响，保证类质保费用计入主营业务成本不再计入销售费用。3Q24 results are in line with expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: revenue of 14.36 billion yuan, up 18.85% year on year and 10.95% month on month; net profit to mother of 0.388 billion yuan, up 6.34% year on year, down 23.13% month on month; after deducting non-net profit of 0.352 billion yuan, up 46.87% year on year and 33.73% month on month. Non-recurring profit and loss were mainly government subsidies and investment income. The growth rate of net profit to mother was less than the growth rate of revenue, mainly due to exchange losses. The company's 3Q24 performance was basically in line with our expectations.
Development trends
3Q24 revenue increased month-on-month, and gross margin was affected by changes in accounting standards. According to IDC, global smartphone shipments in 3Q24 increased 4% year over year to 0.316 billion units. Benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics demand and the continued advancement of power and energy storage businesses, 3Q24 revenue increased 18.85%/10.95%, respectively. 3Q24 gross margin increased 0.71 ppt/month-on-month, respectively, and decreased by 1.57ppt to 15.07%. We determined that the year-on-year increase was mainly due to the increase in the battery self-supply rate. The company announced that the 1-3Q24 consumer cell self-supply rate had exceeded 35%; the month-on-month decline was mainly affected by adjustments in accounting standards and changes in product structure, and guarantee costs were included in the main business costs and no longer included in sales expenses.
Exchange losses are dragging down overall net profit, and the R&D investment continues to be high for a long time. Net profit due to 3Q24 decreased by 23.13% month-on-month. We determined that financial expenses increased by 0.187 billion yuan to 0.232 billion yuan month-on-month mainly due to exchange losses. 3Q24 R&D expenses increased 13.66% year-on-year/18.47% month-on-month to 0.845 billion yuan, maintaining a high level of R&D investment.
I am optimistic that demand for consumer electronics will continue to recover, and the layout of power energy storage batteries will continue to improve. With the intensive release of new Android devices in the fourth quarter, we are optimistic that the company's consumer battery business revenue will continue to improve month-on-month; as the company's battery products are applied and mass-produced among laptop customers, we are optimistic that the self-supply rate of batteries will further increase and drive a quarterly increase in gross margin. In addition, the company's power batteries continue to be released by HEV customers, and the power business is expected to continue to contribute to revenue elasticity; the company announced the shipment of 1.5 GWh of energy storage cells in 3Q24, and we are optimistic about the gradual release of energy storage cells in the future.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the impact of exchange gains and losses on net profit, we lowered our 2024 net profit forecast by 3% to 1.683 billion yuan, leaving the 2025 net profit forecast basically unchanged. The current stock price corresponds to 2024/2025 24 times/18.9 times P/E. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, switching to the 2025 valuation, and considering the upward shift in the industry valuation center, we raised our target price by 20.8% to 24.2 yuan, corresponding to 26.7 times/21 times P/E in 2024/2025, with 11.3% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
The recovery in consumer demand fell short of expectations, the development of the power business fell short of expectations, and raw material prices rose.
