Golden Key Financial News | Zhongtai International released a research report stating that CSPC Pharma (01093) issued a profit warning. Due to the significant decline in revenue from its main business segment pharmaceuticals in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, the net income of shareholders in the first three quarters of the company is expected to decrease by about 16% to approximately 0.38 billion yuan. The main reasons for the decline in pharmaceutical revenue are: 1) the sharp decrease in revenue from oncology drugs in the third quarter; 2) poor performance of core products in the nervous system and cardiovascular fields. The company's performance in the first three quarters is expected to be below market expectations.

The bank pointed out that in the short term, oncology drugs still face challenges, and sales of core products in the nervous system and cardiovascular fields are unlikely to recover rapidly. The forecasted revenue for oncology drug business for FY24-26E has been lowered by 16%-25% to 4.9 billion, 5.46 billion, 6.36 billion yuan. In addition, Enbipu and Xuanning have been on the market for about 20 years, and in the current industry environment, the possibility of a rapid sales recovery in the short term is low.

Considering the above circumstances, the bank has lowered its income forecasts for 2024-26E by 12.8%, 18.3%, 18.4%, and the net income forecasts for shareholders by 20.8%, 20.0%, 20.4%. Based on the adjusted DCF model, the target price has been revised from 6.10 Hong Kong dollars to 5.18 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "Neutral" rating.