Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.2% to US$22.71 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues fell badly short of expectations, with revenue of US$2.7m being some 62% below what the analysts had forecast. Statutory losses were in line with forecasts, with Bicycle Therapeutics losing US$0.74 a share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Bicycle Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$36.1m in 2025. This implies a measurable 2.1% reduction in Bicycle Therapeutics' revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.55 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$35.1m and losses of US$3.47 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$39.10, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Bicycle Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$55.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 31% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Bicycle Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Bicycle Therapeutics. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bicycle Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Bicycle Therapeutics (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
