It's shaping up to be a tough period for Glodon Company Limited (SZSE:002410), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of CN¥1.4b missed by 17%, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.01 fell short of forecasts by 84%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the latest results, Glodon's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥7.07b in 2025. This would be a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 991% to CN¥0.45. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥7.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.46 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at CN¥12.63, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Glodon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥20.20 and the most bearish at CN¥7.70 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Glodon's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 20% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Glodon.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Glodon going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Glodon that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.