It's shaping up to be a tough period for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Unfortunately, China Tourism Group Duty Free delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CN¥12b were 14% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.31 missed estimates by 44%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China Tourism Group Duty Free's 33 analysts is for revenues of CN¥75.5b in 2025. This would reflect a major 26% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 35% to CN¥3.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥76.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.64 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥76.22, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic China Tourism Group Duty Free analyst has a price target of CN¥105 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥60.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that China Tourism Group Duty Free's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 14% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect China Tourism Group Duty Free to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Tourism Group Duty Free. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥76.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple China Tourism Group Duty Free analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for China Tourism Group Duty Free that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.