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Montage Technology Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Montage Technology Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

瀾起科技有限公司剛錯過了盈利,其營業收入數據低於預期。
Simply Wall St ·  11/02 09:02

Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688008) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.8% to CN¥64.55 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were CN¥906m, 24% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of CN¥0.34 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

瀾起科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688008)的股東們可能會感到有些失望,因爲其股票在最新第三季度業績公佈後的一週內下跌了7.8%,至64.55元人民幣。營業收入爲90600萬人民幣,比分析師預期的少了24%,儘管每股盈利爲0.34元人民幣,大致符合預期。在公佈結果後,分析師們已更新了他們的盈利模型,了解他們是否認爲公司前景發生了重大變化,或者一切如常,將會很有幫助。因此,我們收集了最新的盈利後的法定共識預估,以了解明年可能會發生什麼。

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SHSE:688008 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 2nd 2024
SHSE:688008 盈利和營業收入增長 2024年11月2日

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Montage Technology are now predicting revenues of CN¥5.99b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 80% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 81% to CN¥1.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥6.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.93 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

在最新的業績公佈後,覆蓋瀾起科技的17位分析師現在預測該公司2025年的營業收入爲59.9億人民幣。如果達到這一目標,與過去12個月相比,這將反映出營業收入實現了80%的顯著增長。預計每股盈利將飆升81%,達到1.89元人民幣。在此盈利報告之前,分析師們曾預測2025年的營業收入爲61.1億人民幣,每股盈利(EPS)爲1.93元。因此,顯而易見,儘管分析師們已更新了他們的預估,但在最新業績公佈後,並沒有出現對業務預期的重大變化。

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥75.18, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Montage Technology analyst has a price target of CN¥83.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥60.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Montage Technology shareholders.

對於營業收入或盈利預估以及75.18元人民幣的目標價格均未有任何變化,這表明該公司在最近的業績中達到了預期。然而,根據這些數據,我們不僅可以得出這個結論,一些投資者在評估分析師的目標價格時也喜歡考慮預估的差距。最樂觀的瀾起科技分析師的目標價格爲83.60元人民幣每股,而最悲觀者的目標價爲60.00元人民幣。分析師對該業務的看法確實存在差異,但在我們看來,對預估的差距並不足夠大,表明極端結果可能不會出現在瀾起科技的股東們面前。

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Montage Technology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 60% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 24% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Montage Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.

現在來看看更大的圖景,我們了解這些預測的一種方式是將其與過去的業績和行業增長預期進行比較。分析師們確實期待瀾起科技的增長加速,預測到2025年底的60%年增長率與過去五年平均每年12%的歷史增長相比排名靠前。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,預測在相似行業中(有分析師覆蓋的)的其他公司將以每年24%的速度增長他們的營業收入。很明顯,儘管增長前景比最近的過去更加明亮,分析師們也預計瀾起科技的增長速度將超過更廣泛的行業。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最明顯的結論是,業務前景最近並沒有發生重大變化,分析師們保持其盈利預測不變,與以往的預期相符。令人高興的是,營收預測沒有發生重大變化,該業務仍有望比更廣泛的行業增長更快。一致的目標價格沒有發生實質性變化,這表明通過最新的預測,業務的內在價值沒有發生任何重大變化。

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Montage Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

有關公司收入的長期軌跡比明年更加重要。我們有來自多位瀾起科技分析師的估計數據,一直延伸到2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Montage Technology you should be aware of.

不過,您應該始終考慮風險。舉例來說,我們已經發現了對瀾起科技的2個警告信號,希望您能注意。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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