分业务看，2024Q3 酵母、制糖、包装、其他业务营收同比+17.8%、+5.5%、+16.3%、+76.5%，其中酵母主业连续三个季度增速回升，呈现恢复态势，制糖和包装业务增速转正，其他原料类业务高速增长。分区域看，激励落地后公司积极性大幅提升，2024Q3 国内、国际市场营收同比+20.7%、+30.2%，国内营收增速环比2024Q2 大幅提升，连续三个季度改善，预计主因酵母、食品原料等业务贡献；国际市场营收加速成长，势头依然良好。Revenue and profit both improved, maintaining a “buy” rating
2024Q1-Q3's total revenue was 10.91 billion yuan, +13.04% year over year; net profit before and after before and after deducting back and forth was 0.953 and 0.839 billion yuan, +4.23% and +3.44% year-on-year. 2024Q3 revenue was 3.738 billion yuan, +27.14% year over year, net profit before and after deducting net profit of 0.262 and 0.243 billion yuan, +7.02% and +22.68% year-on-year. We maintain our 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 1.404/1.75/2.206 billion yuan, corresponding to 2024-2026 EPS 1.62/2.01/2.54 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to 22.7/18.2/14.5 times PE in 2024-2026. We continue to be bearish on raw material prices and maintain a “buy” rating.
Domestic and international revenue has accelerated quarterly since 2024
By business, the revenue of 2024Q3 yeast, sugar, packaging, and other businesses was +17.8%, +5.5%, +16.3%, and +76.5%. Among them, the main yeast business rebounded for three consecutive quarters, showing a recovery trend. The growth rate of the sugar and packaging business changed, and the other raw materials business grew rapidly. Looking at the subregion, the company's enthusiasm increased dramatically after the implementation of the incentive. 2024Q3 domestic and international market revenue increased by +20.7% and +30.2% year-on-year, and the domestic revenue growth rate increased significantly from 2024Q2, improving for three consecutive quarters. It is expected mainly due to business contributions such as yeast and food ingredients; international market revenue has accelerated, and the momentum is still good.
Profitability fluctuated slightly and is expected to recover in the future
The net profit margin for 2024Q3 was 1.26 pct year on year, of which the company's gross margin was 3.62 pct year on year. It is expected to be affected by factors such as an increase in the share of food ingredients business and international business, an increase in freight costs, and centralized maintenance of superimposed equipment. Sales, management, R&D, and finance expense ratios were -0.09, -0.86, -1.18, and +0.15pct, respectively. The overall cost ratio declined steadily and slightly. The impact on other earnings was due to the reduction in government subsidies.
Incentives boost enthusiasm, and cost reduction catalyzes starting
After the equity incentives were implemented, the enthusiasm of the company's employees increased dramatically, and 2024Q3 domestic, international and various businesses were fully accelerated. The molasses purchasing season has begun, and the supply of molasses is expected to increase compared to 2023. Supply is at a good level. We continue to be bearish on molasses prices, and the cost reduction in 2025 is expected to exceed expectations. The company's cost advantage is still obvious, and the room for globalization can still be expected.
Risk warning: risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of product price reduction, risk of falling international demand.
