It's been a mediocre week for Citic Press Corporation (SZSE:300788) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to CN¥29.69 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥401m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥0.61 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Citic Press after the latest results.

Following the latest results, Citic Press' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥1.90b in 2025. This would be a solid 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 57% to CN¥0.99. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.96 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Citic Press' earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CN¥29.81, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Citic Press at CN¥35.30 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥26.26. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Citic Press' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 13% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So while Citic Press' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Citic Press following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥29.81, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Citic Press going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Citic Press (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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