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Earnings Miss: Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 71% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Earnings Miss: Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 71% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

盈利不達預期:江蘇洋河酒廠股份有限公司的每股收益低於預期71%,分析師們正在調整他們的預測
Simply Wall St ·  11/02 07:25

As you might know, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002304) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥4.6b) coming in 41% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.41 fell 71% short. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

正如您可能知道的那樣,江蘇洋河酒廠股份有限公司(SZSE:002304)上週發佈了其最新季度報告,對股東來說並不是一個好消息。分析師們在公佈業績前過於樂觀,營業收入爲46億元人民幣,比預期低41%。每股收益0.41元人民幣,較預期低71%。這對投資者而言是一個重要時刻,他們可以通過報告追蹤公司的表現,查看專家們對明年的預測,並了解業務預期是否發生了變化。因此,我們彙總了最新的業績後預測,以了解明年的預估情況。

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SZSE:002304 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2024
SZSE:002304 2024年11月1日的營收和盈利增長

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery from 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥35.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 24% to CN¥6.90. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥36.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.16 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

考慮到最新的業績,21位分析師對江蘇洋河酒廠的最新共識是2025年營業收入爲355億元人民幣。若達到這一水平,將意味着過去12個月營收將增長17%。預計每股收益將激增24%至6.90元人民幣。在此業績公佈前,分析師們預測2025年的營業收入爲364億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲7.16元人民幣。考慮到收入預測的下調和每股收益預期的小幅下滑,分析師比之前對公司持更爲看好態度。

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥96.69, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery at CN¥145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥61.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

分析師未對其96.69元人民幣的目標股價做出重大更改,這表明預期的下調不會對江蘇洋河酒廠的估值產生長期影響。查看分析師估值範圍也許會有所啓示,來評估異常看法與平均數的差異。目前,最看好的分析師將江蘇洋河酒廠的估值定爲每股145元人民幣,而最看淡的估值爲每股61.60元人民幣。注意到分析師目標價格之間的巨大差異嗎?這對我們意味着公司存在着相當廣泛的潛在情景範圍。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

當然,觀察這些預測的另一種方法是將它們放入行業背景中進行對比。從最新的預測結果可以明顯看出,江蘇洋河酒廠的增長速度預計將明顯加快,截至2025年末的預計年複合增長率爲13%,明顯快於過去五年的11%的年複合增長率。將其與同行業其他公司進行比較,對比起來,其他公司預計年複合營收增長率爲11%。預計江蘇洋河酒廠的增長速度與行業基本持平,因此目前無法據此判斷其相對於競爭對手的增長情況。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最大的擔憂是分析師下調了每股收益的預估,暗示江蘇洋河釀酒可能面臨業務風險。他們還下調了營業收入的預估,儘管我們之前看到,預測增長預期僅與整個行業板塊大致相同。共識價格目標沒有真正改變,這表明業務的內在價值並未隨着最新的預估發生重大變化。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

考慮到這一點,我們不應該過快得出對江蘇洋河釀酒的結論。 長期盈利能力比明年的利潤更加重要。我們有來自多家江蘇洋河釀酒分析師的預測,延伸至2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

Even so, be aware that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

即便如此,需要注意的是,在我們的投資分析中,江蘇洋河釀酒出現了1個預警信號,您應該了解到...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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