It's been a good week for Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMBC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.7% to US$59.30. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$1.10 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$44m came in 2.7% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Southern Missouri Bancorp's three analysts is for revenues of US$179.7m in 2025. This reflects a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to US$4.95. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$176.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.77 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.7% to US$68.00per share. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Southern Missouri Bancorp at US$72.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$66.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Southern Missouri Bancorp is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.5% annually. So although Southern Missouri Bancorp is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Southern Missouri Bancorp's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Southern Missouri Bancorp analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Southern Missouri Bancorp has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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