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US$127 - That's What Analysts Think UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) Is Worth After These Results

US$127 - That's What Analysts Think UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) Is Worth After These Results

127美元-這是分析師認爲umb金融公司(納斯達克:UMBF)這一結果值得的價值
Simply Wall St ·  11/01 19:05

A week ago, UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$410m arriving 2.8% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.23, 3.7% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

一週前,umb金融公司(納斯達克:UMBF)公佈了強勁的第三季度業績,可能會導致股票重新定價。公司營收爲41000萬美元,超出預期2.8%。法定每股收益(EPS)爲2.23美元,比預期高出3.7%。結果公佈後,分析師們已更新了他們的盈利模型,了解他們是否認爲公司前景有強烈變化,還是一切如常將是個好主意。基於此,我們已收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師們對明年的預期。

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NasdaqGS:UMBF Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2024
納斯達克:UMBF 盈利和營收增長2024年11月1日

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for UMB Financial from five analysts is for revenues of US$2.35b in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 54% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 10% to US$7.21 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.14 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

考慮到最新的結果,來自五位分析師的umb金融最新一致預測是2025年營收達到23.5億美元。如果實現,將意味着過去12個月內其營收大幅增長54%。法定每股收益預計在同期下降10%,至7.21美元。然而,在最新盈利數據公佈之前,分析師們曾預期2025年營收爲23.2億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲7.14美元。一致的分析師們似乎並沒有在這些結果中看到任何會改變他們對該業務看法的事情,因爲他們的預期未發生重大變化。

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.8% to US$127. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UMB Financial at US$137 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$114. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that UMB Financial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

隨着分析師重新確認其營收和盈利預測,令人驚訝的是,股價目標上升了6.8%,至127美元。看來他們之前對業務是否能達到他們的預期存在一些疑慮。然而,過於專注於單一股價目標可能是不明智的,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師股價目標的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估值範圍,以查看對該公司的估值是否存在分歧。目前,最看好的分析師認爲umb金融股票價值爲137美元,而最看淡的則爲114美元。這是一個非常狹窄的估值區間,意味着umb金融可能是一家容易估值的公司,或者更有可能是分析師們嚴重依賴於某些關鍵假設。

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that UMB Financial's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 41% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect UMB Financial to grow faster than the wider industry.

我們可以從更大的背景中查看這些預測的另一種方式,比如預測與過去業績的比較,以及預測與行業其他公司相比是更看好還是更看淡。從最新的預測中可以明顯看出,umb金融的增長速度預計會顯著加快,預計到2025年底的年化營業收入增長率爲41%,明顯快於過去五年的8.2%的歷史增速。相比之下,我們的數據表明,類似行業中其他(有分析師覆蓋的)公司預計年收入增長率爲6.5%。顯然,儘管增長前景比最近的過去更加光明,分析師們也預計umb金融的增速將快於更廣泛的行業。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

最重要的是,情緒沒有發生重大變化,分析師重申公司的業績與他們之前的每股收益預估相符。令人高興的是,營業收入預測沒有發生重大變化,公司仍有望比整個行業增長更快。此外,價格目標也有一個不錯的增加,分析師明顯認爲公司的內在價值在提高。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on UMB Financial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for UMB Financial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

考慮到這一點,我們不應該過快得出關於umb金融的結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤更加重要。我們對umb金融到2026年的預測,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with UMB Financial , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

儘管如此,仍然有必要考慮投資風險的一貫存在。我們已經發現了umb金融的1個警示信號,了解這一點應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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