Earnings Update: AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Earnings Update: AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to US$3,009 in the week after its latest annual results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$18b and statutory earnings per share of US$150 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that AutoZone is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
汽車地帶公司(紐交所:AZO)的股東可能會感到有點失望,因爲其股價在最新一期年度業績公佈後的一週下跌了3.9%,至3,009美元。總體而言,這是一個令人信服的結果,營業收入達到了180億美元,每股盈利爲150美元,均與分析師的預估相符,表明汽車地帶公司正在按預期執行。分析師通常會在每份盈利報告後更新其預測,我們可以從他們的估值中判斷,他們對公司的觀點是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何需要注意的新問題。我們已經收集了最新的法定預測,以查看分析師是否已經根據這些結果修改了其盈利模型。
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AutoZone's 24 analysts is for revenues of US$18.9b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$156, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$18.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$157 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
考慮到最新的結果,汽車地帶公司的24位分析師一致預測,2025年營業收入將達到189億美元。這較去年同比實現了令人滿意的2.1%營收增長。每股法定預期爲156美元,大致符合過去12個月的水平。在這份報告發布前,分析師們一直在預測2025年的營業收入爲189億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲157美元。因此,很明顯,儘管分析師已更新其預測,但在最新業績公佈後,業務的預期並沒有發生重大變化。
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$3,288. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic AutoZone analyst has a price target of US$3,634 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2,600. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
因此,毫不意外地,我們看到一致的價格目標基本保持在3,288美元。然而,過分專注於單一價格目標可能不明智,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師價格目標的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估價範圍,以了解是否存在對公司估值的不同看法。最樂觀的汽車地帶分析師設定的目標價爲每股3,634美元,而最悲觀的爲2,600美元。這些目標價格表明,分析師對該業務存在一些不同看法,但估值並不足以表明有人在期待極大成功或徹底失敗。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AutoZone's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AutoZone.
從更廣泛的視角來看,我們可以通過將這些預測數據與過去業績和行業增長預估進行比較來理解這些預測數據。我們要強調的是,汽車地帶的營業收入增長預計將放緩,預計到2025年底的年增長率爲2.1%,遠低於過去五年的歷史9.6%的年增長率。將其與行業中其他公司(帶有分析師預測)進行比較,則預計整體年度營收增長率爲4.8%。因此,很明顯,儘管營收增長預計放緩,行業整體預計增長速度也將快於汽車地帶。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$3,288, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
最重要的是,關鍵信息是,情緒沒有發生重大變化,分析師重申業務績效與之前的每股收益預估相符。積極的是,營收預估沒有發生重大變化;儘管預測暗示它們將表現不如整個行業。共識的股價目標保持在3288美元,最新的預估對其股價目標沒有影響。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AutoZone analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
請記住,我們仍然認爲業務的長期發展軌跡對投資者來說更爲重要。我們有多位汽車地帶分析師的預估數據,覆蓋到2027年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with AutoZone (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
話雖如此,必須考慮投資風險這個永遠存在的威脅。我們已經確定了汽車地帶存在3個警示信號(至少有2個不容忽視),了解它們應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。
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