维持增持。前 三季度营收130亿元/-12%，归母净利9.23亿元/-19.2%，扣非9.01 亿元/-12.1%；Q3 单季度营收40.2 亿元/-13%，归母2.11亿元/-12.4%，扣非1.96 亿元/-12.1%。维持预测公司2024-26 年EPS为2.84/3.07/3.31 元增速-5/8/8%，维持目标价25.56 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Q3 Operations fluctuated due to the external environment and hot weather, etc., but improvements were reduced; they are optimistic that stores will continue to be optimized, and the renovation of fresh food discount stores is expected to drive a new round of growth.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. Revenue for the first three quarters was 13 billion yuan/ -12%, net profit of 0.923 billion yuan/ -19.2%, after deducting 0.901 billion yuan/ -12.1%; Q3 single quarter revenue was 4.02 billion yuan/ -13%, or 0.211 billion yuan/ -12.4%, less 0.196 billion yuan/ -12.1%. Maintain the forecast that the company's EPS for 2024-26 will be 2.84/3.07/3.31 yuan - 5/8/8%, maintain the target price of 25.56 yuan, and maintain the increase in holdings.
The decline in Q3 narrowed, and Malaysia saw a sharp increase. 1) Q1-3 single quarter revenue growth rate -4.6/-18.5/ -13%, net profit growth rate of -15.1/-28.9/ -12.4%, net profit growth rate of -3.6/-25.3/ -6.7%, respectively; Q3 affected by the external consumption environment, continued high temperatures and phased power restrictions in Chongqing; 2) Gross profit margin of 25.9% /+0.25pct for the first three quarters, net profit margin 7.1% /0.649pct; Q3 respectively 24.4% /-0.85pct, 5.16% /+0.28pct; 3) Expense rate for the period 19.6% /+0.54pct, with sales/management/finance/R&D expense ratios of 14.4/4.8/0.32/ 0.09%, respectively, +0.82/+0.14/ -0.36/ -0.05pct, respectively; 4) net operating cash flow 1.52 billion/ -5%, Q3 single quarter 0.461 billion yuan/ +15%; 5) net income from Q3 investment (Malaysia) 0.147 billion yuan/ +96%; cumulative total of 0.481 for the first three quarters billion yuan/ -2.9%.
The store continues to be optimized, and the electrical performance is excellent. 1) In the first three quarters, 4 new stores were added (supermarket 1+electric appliance 2+auto trade 1), and 12 stores were closed (supermarket 3+electrical appliance 1+auto trade 7). As of the end of Q3, a total of 273 stores (department store 50+ supermarket 149+ electric appliance 42+auto trade 32); 2) By business: department store revenue of 1.78 billion yuan/ -8.6% for the first three quarters, 5.39 billion yuan/ -2.7% for electric appliances, 2.42 billion yuan/ +1.9% for automobile trade; Benefiting from the trade-in policy, the performance of the trade-in policy has exploded. Since the implementation of the policy, the number of customers at Zhongbai Electric stores has exploded, with sales increasing by more than 70% year-on-year; sales of Zhongbai Electric exceeded 0.2 billion yuan/ +115% during the National Day.
The Chongbai Shopping Festival officially kicks off, and fresh food outlets are worth looking forward to. 1) The 5th Centennial Shopping Festival kicks off on October 30, and will launch multiple benefits around the theme of “Good Market, Good Product, and Good Price”; 2) The company's 5 “fresh+discount” supermarkets opened until the end of September, with an average daily increase of 74% and a 49% increase in transaction volume; the sales volume of the first fine lifestyle center increased 580% on the day of opening. Sales increased 32% and the number of transactions increased 36% during the National Day; a new discount store opened on October 29, with sales of 0.380.38/ million yuan on the first day +968%, passenger flow 6628 Attendances/ +273%; 3) Offline retail regulation and price return to value are the general trend. We are optimistic that the subsequent reform of fresh food discount stores will drive continuous improvement in supermarkets and other businesses.
Risk warning: same-store decline, discount stores falling short of expectations, preparations for disbursement, etc.
