China Taibao (601601): Life insurance NBV +38% year over year, financial insurance COR performance is steady

事件概述

中国太保发布2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入3,105.64 亿元，同比+21.3%；保险服务收入2,094.09 亿元，同比+2.3%；归母净利润383.10 亿元，同比+65.5%；归母扣非净利润383.15 亿元，同比+66.4%；基本每股收益3.98 元，同比+65.5%；加权平均ROE 为14.6%，同比+4.7pt。其中2024Q3，公司实现营业收入1159.30 亿元，同比+44.2%；归母净利润131.78 亿元，同比+173.6%，主要受资本市场上涨影响、投资业务同比增加。

分析判断:

寿险：以价补量推动NBV 同比+38%。

报告期内，太保寿险实现保险服务收入623.45 亿元，同比-2.5%；NBV 142.38 亿元，同比+37.9%；NBVM20.1%，同比+6.2pt。分渠道来看，代理人渠道持续深化“芯个险”转型，业务趋势持续向好，新保规模保费338.32 亿元，同比+16.3%；核心队伍量稳质升，月均核心人力同比+2.4%，核心人力月人均首年规模保费同比+15.0%；新增人力量质齐升，增员人数同比+15.5%，新人月人均首年规模保费同比+35.0%。银保渠道坚持以价值为核心，新保规模保费240.15 亿元，同比-18.4%，主要系报行合一影响。其中个人长险期缴新保规模保费102.02 亿元，同比+23.2%。团险渠道新保规模保费128.24 亿元，同比-19.3%。

财险：COR 同比持平。

报告期内，太保产险实现保险服务收入1,452.02 亿元，同比+4.1%；原保费收入1,598.19 亿元，同比+7.7%。其中车险原保险保费收入781.31 亿元，同比+3.3%；非车险原保险保费收入816.88 亿元，同比+12.2%。

承保综合成本率98.7%，与去年同比持平，表现稳健。

投资：总投资收益率同比改善。

今年以来，资本市场动荡，公司灵活调整战术资产配置策略，积极配置长期固收资产，并持续做好低估值、高股息、长期盈利前景好的权益类投资品种配置，取得了良好的成绩。截至报告期末，集团投资资产25,842.75亿元，较上年末+14.9%。2024 年前三季度，公司投资资产净投资收益率为2.9%，同比-0.1pt；总投资收益率为4.7%，同比+2.3pt，主要系公允价值变动损益同比高增。

投资建议

我们继续看好公司负债端稳步改善以及权益弹性带来业绩增长。结合三季报情况，我们维持此前盈利预测，预计2024-2026 年营收为3,839/4,001/4,219 亿元；预计2024-2026 年归母净利润为424/392/408 亿元；预计2024-2026 年EPS 为4.41/4.08/4.24 元。对应2024 年10 月31 日收盘价36.80 元的PEV 分别为0.64/0.60/0.57，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示

宏观经济大幅波动风险；权益市场震荡风险；利率大幅下行风险。

Incident Overview

China Taibao released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 310.564 billion yuan, +21.3%; insurance service revenue of 209.409 billion yuan, +2.3%; net profit to mother of 38.31 billion yuan, +65.5% year over year; deducted non-net profit of 38.315 billion yuan, +66.4% year over year; basic earnings per share of 3.98 yuan, +65.5% year on year; weighted average ROE was 14.6%, +4.7pt year over year. Among them, in 2024Q3, the company achieved operating income of 115.93 billion yuan, +44.2% year on year; net profit to mother was 13.178 billion yuan, +173.6% year over year, mainly affected by the rise in the capital market and the year-on-year increase in investment business.

Analytical judgment:

Life insurance: Price supplements drive NBV +38% year over year.

During the reporting period, Taibao Life Insurance achieved insurance service revenue of 62.345 billion yuan, -2.5% year on year; NBV 14.238 billion yuan, +37.9% year on year; and NBVM 20.1%, +6.2 pt year on year. By channel, the agent channel continues to deepen the transformation of “Core Personal Insurance”, and the business trend continues to improve. The new insurance scale premium is 33.832 billion yuan, +16.3% year over year; core team volume and quality increase, average monthly core manpower ratio +2.4%, core manpower monthly first-year premium ratio +15.0%; the quantity and quality of new manpower has increased rapidly, and the number of new employees has increased +15.5%, and the monthly first-year premium per newcomer is +35.0%. The banking insurance channel insists on value as the core. The premium for the new insurance scale is 24.015 billion yuan, -18.4% compared with the same period last year. It is mainly influenced by the integration of reporting banks. Among them, individuals paid 10.202 billion yuan of new insurance premiums during the long-term insurance period, +23.2% over the same period. The new insurance premium for the group insurance channel was 12.824 billion yuan, -19.3% compared with the same period last year.

Financial insurance: COR remained flat year over year.

During the reporting period, Taibao Industrial Insurance achieved insurance service revenue of 145.202 billion yuan, +4.1% year-on-year; the original premium income was 159.819 billion yuan, +7.7% year-on-year. Among them, the original insurance premium income for car insurance was 78.131 billion yuan, +3.3% year-on-year; the original insurance premium income for non-car insurance was 81.688 billion yuan, +12.2% year-on-year.

The comprehensive underwriting cost ratio was 98.7%, the same as last year, and the performance was steady.

Investment: The return on total investment improved year over year.

Since this year, the capital market has been in turmoil. The company has flexibly adjusted its tactical asset allocation strategy, actively allocated long-term fixed income assets, and continued to allocate equity investment types with undervalued, high dividends, and good long-term profit prospects, and achieved good results. As of the end of the reporting period, the Group's investment assets were 2584.275 billion yuan, +14.9% compared to the end of the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2024, the net return on investment of the company's investment assets was 2.9%, -0.1 pt year on year; the total return on investment was 4.7%, +2.3 pt year on year, mainly due to the high year-on-year increase in profit and loss due to changes in fair value.

Investment advice

We continue to be optimistic about the steady improvement in the company's debt side and the increase in performance due to equity flexibility. Based on the three-quarter report, we maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect revenue of 383.9/400.1/421.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026; estimated net profit to mother of 42.4/39.2/40.8 billion yuan for 2024-2026; and estimated EPS of 4.41/4.08/4.24 yuan for 2024-2026. The PEVs corresponding to the closing price of 36.80 yuan on October 31, 2024 were 0.64/0.60/0.57, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Risk of large macroeconomic fluctuations; risk of equity market shock; risk of sharp decline in interest rates.

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中国太保(601601)：寿险NBV同比+38% 财险COR表现稳健

China Taibao (601601): Life insurance NBV +38% year over year, financial insurance COR performance is steady

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