火电：各省区火电需求分化，环比量增价减。1）量：3Q24 上网电量151 亿度，同比-5.8%。其中，广西地区火电电量在新增钦州二电投产的情况下同比-16.1%、贵州地区火电电量也同比-5.2%，主要受区域来水偏丰挤占火电发电空间影响。福建地区火电电量同比+8.0%，主因当地核电发电量下降。2）价：火电两部制电价下，3Q24 上网电价环比提升导致容量电价被摊薄，平均上网电价同/环比均下降：On the evening of October 30, the company released its three-quarter report. From 1 to 3Q24, the company achieved revenue of 44.4 billion yuan, +4.3% year over year; realized net profit of 6.35 billion yuan after deduction, or +5.4% year-on-year. 3Q24 achieved revenue of 17.29 billion yuan, or 6.9% year-on-year; realized net profit after deduction of 2.63 billion yuan, or -2.7% year-on-year.
Hydropower: In 3Q24, incoming water from the Yalong River improved significantly year-on-year, contributing to revenue growth through volume compensation. 1) Volume: According to data from the Sichuan Hydrology Bureau, 7M24 Yalong River incoming water was +157% and +37% year-on-year, respectively. Improvements in incoming water helped the company achieve 36.83 billion feed-in electricity in 3Q24, +22.7% over the same period last year.
2) Price: The structural impact of electricity prices subsided during the flood season. The average feed-in tariff in 3Q24 was 0.278 yuan/kWh, -1.1% year-on-year. Among them, the decline in hydropower prices in the Yalong River narrowed sharply by 8.3 pcts month-on-month compared to the previous quarter. Electricity prices in the Xiaosanxia were still affected by the decline in average spot price of electricity in Gansu -9.2% year-on-year, but the improvement in electricity demand in Q3 made the electricity price drop narrower by about 6.5 pcts month-on-month compared to the previous quarter.
Thermal power: Demand for thermal power in various provinces and regions is divided, with month-on-month price increases and decreases. 1) Volume: 3Q24 feed-in electricity was 15.1 billion degrees, -5.8% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the amount of thermal power in the Guangxi region was -16.1% compared to the same period when the second power in Qinzhou was put into operation, and the amount of thermal power in the Guizhou region was also -5.2%, mainly affected by abundant incoming water from the region, which squeezed out thermal power generation space. The amount of thermal power in Fujian was +8.0% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in local nuclear power generation. 2) Price: Under the two electricity systems of thermal power, the 3Q24 feed-in tariff increased month-on-month, and capacity electricity prices were diluted, and the average feed-in tariff decreased the same month-on-month:
The 3Q24 feed-in tariff was 0.459 yuan/kWh, -15 cent/kWh year-on-year, and -8 cent/kWh month-on-month. 3) Profit: The price of coal in the 5500 kcal market in Qingang was only -17 yuan/ton year on year in 3Q24. The reduction in fuel costs was not as good as the reduction in electricity prices. As a result, the company's gross margin fell 2.5 pcts year on year.
The structural increase of affordable Internet access projects+the implementation of peak and valley timeshare prices, and the company's photovoltaic electricity prices have all declined month-on-month. In 3Q24, driven by the increase in installed capacity, the company achieved 1.27 billion kilowatt-hours of PV power, +50.1% year over year; due to weak wind resources, wind power achieved 1.43 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in power during the same period, -7.3% year over year. Due to the structural increase in affordable Internet projects and the impact of time-sharing electricity prices in 3Q24, wind and optical feed-in tariffs fell 0.9% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, and 0.9% and 16.5%, respectively, from the previous quarter. Affected by falling electricity prices, Q3's photovoltaic power generation business may face no increase in revenue compared to Q2.
In 2024, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow due to improved incoming water, declining coal prices, and installed wind and energy.
The company is expected to achieve net profit of 7.61/8.42/9.18 billion yuan in 24-26, EPS of 1.02/1.13/1.23 yuan respectively, and the current PE valuation of the company's stock price is 15 times, 14 times, and 13 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Incoming water conditions, falling coal prices, demand for electricity, risk of new energy installations falling short of expectations; risk of electricity price fluctuations, etc.