Incidents:
Chongqing Department Store released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 13.004 billion yuan/ -12.00%, net profit of 0.923 billion yuan/ -19.24%, net profit after deducting 0.901 billion yuan/ -12.12%; Q3 achieved revenue of 4.024 billion yuan/ -12.96% in a single quarter, net profit to mother 0.211 billion yuan/ -12.43%, net profit after deducting net profit of 0.196 billion yuan /- 9.12%
Comment:
The scale of the auto trade business has been actively reduced, and revenue has declined. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 13.004 billion yuan/ -12.00%, Chongqing region: 1) department store revenue 1.629 billion yuan/ -8.20%; 2) supermarket revenue 5.286 billion yuan/ -2.08%; 3) electric appliance revenue 2.416 billion yuan/ +1.88%; 4) auto trade revenue 3.278 billion yuan/ -30.31%; 5) other revenue 0.148 billion yuan/ -28.48%. The number of department stores/supermarkets/electronics/auto trade stores changed by 0/-2/+1/-6, respectively. Sichuan region: 1) department store revenue 0.149 billion yuan/ -12.99%; 2) supermarket revenue 0.097 billion yuan/ -12.64%. Hubei region: supermarket revenue 0.003 billion yuan/ -89.50%. The decline in the company's revenue was mainly due to the decline in the auto trade business. The company took the initiative to reduce the size of the special vehicle business in order to control operating risks.
Expenses are properly controlled, and the cost rate performance is stable. The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 19.56% /+0.53 pct, with sales expenses ratio 14.35% /+0.81 pct; management expenses rate 4.80% /+0.13 pct; R&D expenses rate 0.09% /-0.05 pct; and financial expenses ratio 0.32% /-0.36pct. Single Q3 cost rate 20.68% /+1.26pct, with sales expense ratio 15.24% /+0.95pct, management expense ratio 5.02% /+0.57pct, R&D expense ratio 0.08% /-0.06pct, financial cost ratio 0.34% /-0.21pct. The company continues to strengthen cost control, and the cost rate is stabilizing.
Profitability is relatively stable. The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 25.94% /+0.23pct. Among them, the gross margin of department store/supermarket/electrical/auto trade in Chongqing was 70.56%/19.28%/5.93%, respectively, -1.15pct/-2.32pct/-0.77pct/-0.18pct; net profit margin to mother 7.10% /-0.60pct, net profit margin 6.93%/-0.31pct. Single Q3 gross profit margin 24.36% /-0.90pct, net profit margin 5.25% /+0.23pct, net non-return profit margin 4.87% /-0.76pct. The share of the low-margin auto trade business declined, and the company's gross margin remained stable in the first three quarters.
Investment advice: The company's four major business formats are actively changing, and competitiveness continues to improve. Malaysia's financial customer base has been continuously optimized, and the non-performing rate has remained good, which is expected to benefit from the trend of stricter financial supervision. Taking into account the pressure on the consumer market and adjusting profit forecasts, the estimated revenue for 2024-2026 is 16.868/17.333/17.823 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 1.227/1.318/1.417 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 8/7/7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; store expansion falls short of expectations; performance forecasts and valuation judgments fall short of expectations.