It's been a good week for S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002352) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.5% to CN¥44.66. Revenues were CN¥72b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CN¥0.59, an impressive 74% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the latest results, S.F. Holding's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥313.2b in 2025. This would be a notable 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 18% to CN¥2.37. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥314.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.34 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥49.45, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic S.F. Holding analyst has a price target of CN¥59.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥40.60. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the S.F. Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that S.F. Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while S.F. Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥49.45, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for S.F. Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that S.F. Holding is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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