深耕碳基复合材料领域，负极业务表现出色。公司已成功研发和量产碳/碳匣钵、坩埚、箱板、立柱等锂电池正/负极材料制备用碳基复合材料高温热场产品，其各项性能达到行业先进水平，并已应用于公司锂电负极一体化示范线I 期5 万吨项目。目前，公司锂电碳基复合材料热场系列产品在下游客户验证拓展情况顺利，已向国内多家正/负极材料厂商正式供货，另有多家锂电负极材料客户正在产品验证中。我们认为公司将继续通过技术创新、工艺优化、精细管理等方式推进降本增效工作，不断提高锂电业务盈利能力。Key points of investment:
2024Q3 continues to put pressure on profits. According to the company's three-quarter report, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.097 billion yuan, -64% year-on-year, and -31% month-on-month; net profit to mother -0.043 billion yuan, or -248% year-on-year, reducing losses month-on-month. Profit pressure is mainly due to insufficient operating rate of downstream customers, which affects demand for the thermal field system series products. At the same time, the reduction in sales prices also had a negative impact on revenue. R&D investment declined by 58.40%, mainly due to a slowdown in investment in some R&D projects.
Actively respond to industry changes and maintain a leading position in the photovoltaic field. Due to factors such as downstream silicon wafer inventory removal and sharp operating rate adjustments, the gross margin of the photovoltaic thermal field sector declined year-on-year, but the company adopted a steady business strategy, optimized the customer system, continued to reduce the production cost of carbon-based composites through technological optimization and collaborative innovation, while maintaining investment in R&D to promote the iteration and application of carbon-based material series products. The new carbon-based composite main heater product developed by the company has now been verified by customers, and can meet the technical requirements of monocrystalline furnaces for energy saving and reducing oxygen content in monocrystalline silicon. We believe that competition in the photovoltaic industry chain is intensifying, and the company will adopt a series of cost reduction measures to adapt to market changes and maintain its advantage in this field.
Deeply involved in the field of carbon-based composites, the anode business has performed well. The company has successfully developed and mass-produced carbon-based composite high-temperature thermal field products for the preparation of lithium battery positive/negative materials such as carbon/carbon boxes, crucibles, boxes, columns, etc., and their various properties have reached the advanced level of the industry, and have been applied to the 0.05 million ton project of the company's lithium battery anode integration demonstration line phase I. At present, the company's lithium battery carbon-based composite thermal field series products have been successfully verified and expanded by downstream customers. They have been officially supplied to many domestic positive/negative electrode material manufacturers, and many other lithium battery anode material customers are undergoing product verification. We believe that the company will continue to promote cost reduction and efficiency through technological innovation, process optimization, fine management, etc., and continuously improve the profitability of the lithium battery business.
Actively explore the semiconductor field and provide excellent alternative localization solutions. The company can provide domestic product alternatives with comprehensive performance to meet the needs of thermal field materials and insulation materials used in the semiconductor field. Among them, ultra-high purity insulation material series products have begun to be delivered in small batches to achieve import substitution of insulation material products in the semiconductor field; ultra-high purity thermal field products are in the development and verification stage; high-performance tantalum carbide coatings and their preparation technology can be widely used in high-purity crystal manufacturing heat field systems such as monocrystalline silicon and silicon carbide.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.029, 0.186, and 0.286 billion yuan in 24-26, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 85.8%, an increase of 546.3%, and an increase of 53.5%. As a leader in the carbon carbon heat field, the company was rated “superior to the market” by referring to comparable companies that gave the company a PE valuation of 30 to 32 times in 2025, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 27.3 to 29.1 yuan.
Risk warning: risk of failure to develop new markets, risk of fluctuating raw materials and energy prices.
