煤炭业务实现毛利108.91 亿元，同比下降34.6%，毛利率43.2%，同比下降11.3 个百分点。Incident: On October 30, 2024, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. Net profit attributable to parent company owners for the first three quarters was 2.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.51%; operating income was 26.649 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.28% year-on-year.
The 24Q3 performance declined from month to month. 24Q3 achieved operating income of 8.995 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.19%, and remained flat month-on-month. Net profit to mother was 0.572 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 39.09%. Total expenses during the 24Q3 period were 1.28 billion yuan, up 1.53% year on year and up 23.22% month on month. Among them, R&D expenses were 0.36 billion yuan, down 14.12% year on year, up 41.79% month on month, and management expenses were 0.865 billion yuan, up 12.41% year on year and 16.69% month on month.
Volume and price declined year over year in the first three quarters. The 24Q1-3 company achieved 42.47 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year decrease of 4.82%. Among them, mixed coal production was 21.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.29%; injection coal production was 14.99 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.49%, and injection coal production accounted for 35.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.63 percentage points. The 24Q1-3 company achieved commercial coal sales of 38.07 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%. Among them, mixed coal sales were 21.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.59%, and injection coal sales were 14.88 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.94%. The company's comprehensive coal sales price was 662.15 yuan/ton, down 12.3% year on year, and the comprehensive cost was 376.12 yuan/ton, up 9.6% year on year.
The coal business achieved gross profit of 10.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6%, and a gross profit margin of 43.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3 percentage points.
In 24Q3, volume increases and prices decreased, and costs increased significantly. 24Q3 achieved 14.8 million tons of raw coal production, down 1.86% year on year and up 2.56% month on month; of these, mixed coal production was 7.44 million tons, up 8.61% year on year, up 1.64% month on month; injection coal production was 5.29 million tons, down 8.95% year on year and 9.07% month on month.
Coal sales in 24Q3 were 13.52 million tons, up 1.81% year on year, up 6.12% month on month; of these, mixed coal sales were 7.39 million tons, up 10.79% year on year, up 1.23% month on month, and injection coal sales were 5.52 million tons, down 2.65% year on year and 15.72% month on month. The price of a ton of coal was 624.28 yuan/ton, down 13.23% year on year and 7.82% month on month. The cost of a ton of coal was 384.69 yuan/ton, up 8.26% year on year and 5.25% month on month.
The comprehensive gross profit of coal was 3.239 billion yuan, down 33.01% year on year, 18.44% month on month, gross margin was 38.4%, down 12.2 percentage points year on year and 7.7 percentage points month on month.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 3.615/3.833/4.207 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.21/1.28/1.41 yuan/share, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on October 30, 2024 will all be 13/12/11 times. Considering that demand for injection coal for the company's main products is relatively weak, it was downgraded to a “careful recommendation” rating.
Risk warning: Coal prices have dropped sharply; downstream demand has fallen short of expectations; costs have risen above expectations, company production falls short of expectations, and prospecting rights are still uncertain.
