维持“增持”评级：考虑到公司潜在装机增量可观，维持 2024 年EPS 0.83 元，上调2025~2026 年EPS 至0.98/1.09 元（原0.97/1.08元），考虑到龙头溢价，给予公司2025 年20 倍PE 估值，上调目标价至19.60 元（原17.46 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The increase in 3Q24 performance is related to an increase in investment income and a decrease in profit and loss for minority shareholders; the company's potential increase in installed capacity is considerable, and clean energy attributes are strengthened.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “gain” rating: Considering the company's potential increase in installed capacity, maintain the 2024 EPS of 0.83 yuan, raise the 2025-2026 EPS to 0.98/1.09 yuan (originally 0.97/1.08 yuan), consider the premium price of the leader, give the company 20 times the PE valuation in 2025, raise the target price to 19.60 yuan (originally 17.46 yuan), and maintain the “gain” rating.
The results exceeded expectations. The company's revenue from 1 to 3Q24 was 26.35 billion yuan, -6.4% YoY; net profit to mother was 5.47 billion yuan, -10.6% YoY. On a quarterly basis, 3Q24 revenue was 7.47 billion yuan, -9.9%; net profit to mother was 1.65 billion yuan, +41.6% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.36 billion yuan, +16.0% year over year, and performance exceeded expectations.
The increase in 3Q24 results was related to an increase in investment income and a decrease in minority shareholders' profit and loss. 3Q24 generated 16.8 billion kilowatt-hours, +6.4% year-on-year; of these, wind/thermal power/photovoltaics and other renewable energy generated 12.3/2.3/2.2 billion kilowatt-hours, +6.2%/-13.9%/+41.7% year-on-year. The company's 3Q24 gross profit was 2.41 billion yuan, -3.7% YoY; net profit was 1.65 billion yuan, +18.7% YoY.
We believe that the increase in the company's 3Q24 performance is mainly due to: 1) 3Q24 investment income of 0.514 billion yuan, +0.446 billion yuan year on year, mainly related to the transfer of shares in Jiangyin Sulong Thermal Power Co., Ltd.; 2) 3Q24 minority shareholders' profit and loss of 0.002 billion yuan, -0.238 billion yuan year on year.
The potential increase in installed capacity is considerable, and clean energy properties are enhanced. In October 2024, the company plans to acquire shares in a total of 8 new energy companies in Shandong, Jiangxi, Gansu and Guangxi under the controlling shareholder National Energy Group in cash; the target company has a total installed capacity of 2.0 GW of new energy under operation and construction, corresponding to 5.5% growth space. At the same time, the controlling shareholder issued the “Supplementary Letter of Commitment on Avoiding Competition with Longyuan Electric Power Group Co., Ltd. (2)”, promising to inject the surviving wind power business into the company by January 24, 2028. We believe that as asset injection progresses steadily, the potential increase in the company's installed capacity is considerable. In addition, the company has completed the equity transfer to Jiangyin Sulong Thermal Power Co., Ltd. In addition to one-time investment income, it is more important to further focus on the main energy business: by the end of 3Q24, the company had a cumulative installed capacity of 37.0 GW, of which wind power/thermal power/photovoltaics and other renewable energy installed capacity was 28.4/0.7/8.0 GW; the installed capacity of new energy accounts for 98.2%, +3.9 ppts year on year.
Risk warning: New energy installations fall short of expectations, electricity prices fall short of expectations, impairment charges exceed expectations, etc.
