维持增持。公司前三季度业绩不及预期，考虑到行业需求尚待回暖、应收账款增加导致计提减值相应增加，下调预测2024-2025 年EPS至0.53(-0.60)/0.79(-0.96)元，新增预测2026 年EPS 为1.05 元。参考可比公司2024 年PS 估值，给予目标价35 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Performance fell short of expectations year-on-year due to multiple factors, and continued exploration of data elements and AI applications to strengthen product competitiveness and open up more growth areas.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's performance for the first three quarters fell short of expectations. Considering that industry demand has yet to pick up and accrued impairment increases due to increased accounts receivable, the 2024-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.53 (-0.60) /0.79 (-0.96) yuan, and the additional forecast for 2026 EPS was 1.05 yuan. Referring to the 2024 PS valuation of comparable companies, a target price of 35 yuan was given to maintain the increase in holdings.
Net profit attributable to mother for the first three quarters fell short of expectations year-on-year, and cost rigidity affected performance. In the first three quarters, revenue of 0.476 billion yuan fell 12% year on year. It was mainly affected by external factors. Compared to the same industry, the company's growth was also weak during the same period. Q3 single-quarter revenue of 0.175 billion yuan decreased 29% year over year. Net profit due to the first three quarters was $-41.26 million, compared to 18.03 million yuan for the same period last year. On the one hand, it was affected by the decline in revenue, while the relative rigidity of the three-fee expenses did not decrease in the same proportion, leading to an increase in the expense ratio. On the other hand, the increase in accounts receivable led to an increase in accrued impairment. Furthermore, the 58.70% holding subsidiary Jiahe Heisen and the 22.45% shareholding subsidiary Ander Medical Intelligence had a significant impact on performance. The former was in the business start-up period, and the latter was in the recovery period of bankruptcy and restructuring. Q3 net profit to mother in a single quarter was -13.79 million yuan, compared to 41.19 million yuan in the same period last year.
Actively explore the application of data elements to improve the level of integrated management of hospital data. According to the company's official account, the company can build a high-quality data base for mutual communication and sharing at both hospital and regional levels to help medical institutions fully tap the value of data elements. At the hospital level, hospitals can build a “library” of full-ecosystem data assets, focusing on a closed loop of “data generation-data governance-data application” products, and explore more data-enabled application scenarios in smart medical care, smart services, smart management, smart regions, etc., such as unified patient views, “national examination” index analysis, and third-level hospital review index analysis. At the regional level, strategic deployment is carried out around regional medical data resource application services, a regional medical full data lake is created, and upper level applications are actively explored to support mutual communication and sharing among multiple institutions.
Actively explore AI application scenarios and continue to intelligently transform products. According to the company's official public account, the company has formed a full ecosystem of smart medical product matrices, including clinical assisted decision support systems (CDSS), AI medical record content quality control systems, big data research and analysis platforms, intelligent pre-diagnosis systems, intelligent triage systems, and VTE risk prevention and control. The company is also actively exploring the use of large models to enhance existing AI products. According to the 2024 semi-annual report, Jiahe Healthcare's big model uses the GPT architecture, and the total number of training tokens reached 14 billion.
Risk warning: New business development falls short of expectations, industry competition increases risk
