维持“增持”评级。2024Q1-Q3营收277.02亿元（-6.23%），归母净利润65.33 亿元（-19.11%）；Q3 单季度营收104.61 亿元（-1.96%），归母净利润22.93 亿元（-17.02%），业绩符合预期。维持2024 年EPS预测为3.34 元，考虑多肽业务持续放量、降本增效及产能利用率提升拉动盈利能力提升，上调2025-2026 年EPS 预测为3.78/4.27 元，（原3.70/4.11 元）。参考可比公司估值，给予2025 年PE19X，上调目标价至71.82 元（原52.96 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Ongoing orders continue to grow, and the peptide business continues to expand, and we are optimistic about long-term growth space.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024Q1-Q3 revenue of 27.702 billion yuan (-6.23%), net profit of 6.533 billion yuan (-19.11%); Q3 single quarter revenue of 10.461 billion yuan (-1.96%), net profit of 2.293 billion yuan (-17.02%), in line with expectations. The 2024 EPS forecast was maintained at 3.34 yuan. Taking into account the continued expansion of the peptide business, cost reduction and efficiency, and increased capacity utilization, which led to an increase in profitability, the EPS forecast for 2025-2026 was raised to 3.78/4.27 yuan (originally 3.70/4.11 yuan). Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 PE19X was given, and the target price was raised to 71.82 yuan (originally 52.96 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Ongoing orders continued to rise. Excluding the impact of COVID-19 commercial orders, the chemical business's 2024Q1-Q3 revenue increased 10.4% year over year, and Q3 revenue increased 26.4% year over year. 2024Q1-Q3 added a total of 915 molecules (R side up 7%, D side up 11%, M side up 17%); test business revenue was 3.26 billion yuan, down 4.9% year on year, of which laboratory analysis and testing service revenue fell 7.9% year on year, mainly due to market price competition. Clinical CRO and SMO revenue increased 3.4% year on year, and SMO increased 16% year on year to maintain leading position in the industry; biology business revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, down 3.6% year on year, new molecule types Revenue increased 6.0% year over year, accounting for 28.5%; high-end treatment CTDMO business revenue was 0.85 billion yuan, down 17.0% year on year, mainly affected by commercialization projects still in the early stages of deployment, delays in some projects, cancellations due to customer reasons, and proposed US legislation. As of 2024Q3, on-hand orders were 43.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, to guarantee long-term growth. Revenue from the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies reached 11.22 billion yuan, and excluding specific commercialization projects, an increase of 23.1% year over year. The number of customers continues to expand, with 2024Q1-Q3 adding more than 800 new customers.
The peptide business continues to contribute more and more. The TIDES business increased the construction of new molecular pipelines and production capacity. The 2024Q1-Q3 TIDES business revenue was 3.55 billion yuan, an increase of 71.0% year-on-year, and the company expects annual revenue to exceed 60%. As of the end of September 2024, the number of active orders increased 196% year over year, the number of D&M service customers increased 20% year over year, and the number of service molecules increased 22% year over year.
In January 2024, the total volume of the peptide solid phase synthesis reactor was raised to 32,000 L, which is expected to increase to 41,000 L by the end of 2024, and production capacity is expected to increase further in 2025. The accelerated development of the peptide business opens up room for long-term growth.
Catalysts: Emerging businesses contribute to performance; traditional business operation efficiency is further improved.
Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk, geopolitical risk, and order fluctuation risk.
