投资建议：公司作为冰冷龙头享受行业增长红利，合肥家电有望充分协同，外销借黑电优势带动TCL 自主品牌白电出海，内销“以旧换新”政策支持或带来利好；未来期待空调业务注入与少数股权回购进一步增厚业绩。我们预计，2024-2026 年公司归母净利润为9.85/10.97/12.19 亿元，对应EPS 为0.91/1.01/1.12 元，当前股价对应PE 为12.85/11.55/10.38倍。维持“买入”评级。Event: On October 29, 2024, TCL Smart Home released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 13.945 billion yuan (+22.95%), net profit attributable to mother was 0.825 billion yuan (+29.56%), and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.811 billion yuan (+39.16%). (Note: The year-on-year data are all adjusted, including the size of household appliances in Hefei, same below).
2024Q3 revenue increased rapidly, with a high increase after deducting non-net profit. 1) Revenue side: Looking at a single quarter, the company's revenue in 2024Q3 was 4.984 billion yuan (+19.86%), achieving double-digit growth, or benefiting from the strong export boom in the ice washing industry. The refrigerator category, European geopolitics, supply chains, etc., may slow down local production. US inventory demand and strikes are expected or accelerated preparation. The company's performance is expected to outperform the industry. 2) Profit side: 2024Q3 net profit of 0.266 billion yuan (+23.49%), net profit of non-return to mother 0.253 billion yuan (+32.99%).
2024Q3's profitability has improved, and we are optimistic about medium- to long-term business collaboration to improve quality and efficiency. 1) Gross profit margin: 2024Q3 gross profit margin 24.04% (+1.93pct), or benefiting from product structure improvements, etc. 2) Net interest rate to mother: 2024Q3 net interest rate to mother is 5.33% (+0.16pct), and the cost side investment has increased. 3) Cost side: 2024Q3 sales/management/ R&D/finance cost rates were 3.67/3.71/4.18/ 1.10%, respectively, compared with +0.30/+0.73/+0.40/+0.81 pct, respectively. The overall cost rate level increased or sales scale increased, labor and storage costs increased, R&D investment increased, etc., and the financial cost ratio increased or the exchange rate affected. We believe that increasing investment in sales and R&D may benefit long-term development, and we are optimistic that TCL will collaborate to further improve operational efficiency in the future.
Investment advice: As a cold leader, the company enjoys the dividends of industry growth. Hefei home appliances are expected to fully collaborate. Export sales use the advantages of black electricity to drive TCL's own brand White Electric to go overseas, and domestic sales support or bring benefits to the “trade-in” policy; in the future, we look forward to air conditioning business injections and minority share buybacks to further enhance performance. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.985/1.097/1.219 billion yuan in 2024-2026, the corresponding EPS is 0.91/1.01/1.12 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 12.85/11.55/10.38 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, minority share repurchase risk, macroeconomic factors fluctuation risk, etc.
