营收与盈利前三季度同比均显著下滑。24Q1-3，公司实现营收134.5亿元，同比-23.0%，Q3单季同比-10.0%、环比Q2单季-9.9%，为45.4亿元；24Q1-3公司归母净利润28.6亿元，同比-38.0%，Q3单季同比-39.8%、环比Q2单季-36.3%，为6.3亿元。24Q1-3, 公司自营/ 经纪/ 投行/ 资管/ 其他业务营收占比分别为55.5%/19.0%/15.3%/6.2%/12.7%，同比分别+15.5/-1.1/+0.3/+0.8/-11.4 pct，公司营收结构较上年同期变化显著，自营业务贡献主要营收。Incidents:
On October 30, CICC announced its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 13.45 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, down 23.0% year on year; net profit to mother was 2.86 billion yuan, down 38.0% year on year; the company's weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 24 was 2.64%, a decrease of 2.2 pct from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share were 0.49 yuan/share.
Comment:
Both revenue and profit declined significantly year-on-year in the first three quarters. With 24Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, -23.0% year over year, Q3 quarter over quarter -10.0%, and Q2 quarter -9.9%, or 4.54 billion yuan; 24Q1-3 company's net profit to mother was 2.86 billion yuan, -38.0% year over year, Q3 was -39.8% year over quarter, and -36.3% month-on-month. 24Q1-3, the company's own business/ broker/ investment bank/ asset management/ other businesses accounted for 55.5%/19.0%/15.3%/6.2%/12.7%, respectively, +15.5/-1.1/+0.3/+0.8/-11.4 pct year-on-year, respectively. The company's revenue structure changed significantly over the same period last year, and its own business contributed the main revenue.
Brokerage revenue continued to be under pressure, and net interest expenses increased year over year. 24Q1-3, the average daily stock base trading volume of the A-share market was 921 billion yuan, -8.6%; 24Q1-3's net brokerage revenue was 2.56 billion yuan, -27.1% year over year, -22.1% year over year, and -15.8% month-on-month compared to Q2 single quarter, 0.79 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in revenue from traditional businesses such as brokerage trading of securities in the A-share market. In terms of credit business, as of the end of September, the city's balance of two loans was 1.44 trillion yuan, -9.5%; 24Q1-3 companies' net interest expenses for credit business were +44.1% YoY, 1.19 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was -7.0% compared to the same period last year and +72.7% month-on-month compared to the Q2 single quarter, which was 0.38 billion yuan, mainly due to a decrease in interest income from securities financing in the first three quarters.
Investment banking revenue continued to be under pressure, and the scale of equity financing declined significantly in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the number of IPOs and capital raised in the A-share market was 69 to 47.87 billion yuan, respectively, -73.9%/-85.2% year over year; the number of refinanciers and capital raised was 156 to 183.77 billion yuan, respectively, -60.5%/-72.1% year on year. The scale of market financing declined significantly year on year. 24Q1-3 raised 3.59 billion yuan in IPO capital, -88.4% year over year; market share was 7.9%, -1.55pct year on year. The company's equity underwriting scale contracted significantly in the first three quarters. The net revenue of 24Q1-3's investment banking business was affected by the slowdown in the A-share market IPO and refinancing pace. The Q3 single quarter was +23.9% compared to the same period last year and -5.9% month-on-month, or 0.78 billion yuan. In the future, the company will continue to thoroughly grasp mergers and acquisitions opportunities in key industries, promote the integration and upgrading of market-based industries, promote domestic and foreign linkage advantages, and steadily increase market share and obtain performance recovery.
Proprietary business contributed to revenue growth, and asset management business continued to be pressured by fee reforms. In terms of proprietary business, the size of the company's 24Q1-3 transactional financial assets was -8.0% to 275.36 billion yuan, -3.3% compared to the end of the previous year; 24Q1-3's self-operated business revenue was +6.8% to 7.47 billion yuan. The Q3 single quarter was +25.0% compared to the same period last year, and +32.8% month-on-month, to 3.21 billion yuan. Fluctuations in the securities market led to an increase in net income from financial instruments measured at fair value. Net revenue from 24Q1-3's asset management business was -11.7% to 0.84 billion yuan, -4.5% in the Q3 quarter compared to the same period last year and -2.0% month-on-month, or 0.28 billion yuan. The company's asset management business continued to be under pressure due to public fund reform. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the company's asset management business products and strategic layout, space for performance restoration is expected to open up.
Profit prediction and rating: As a strong leading brokerage firm, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from various capital market reform policies and obtain performance recovery in the future. In view of the current volatile A-share market and uncertainty about the recovery of the company's performance for some time to come, we predict that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 49.1 (down 0.8%)/52.7 (down 3.6%)/56.9 billion yuan (down 3.4%), EPS will be 1.02/1.09/1.18 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 34.77/32.40/30.02 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase” rating for A shares.
Risk warning: The downward pressure on the economy is increasing; active capital market reforms fall short of expectations.
