预计H20 成为主要增长动力、验证强者恒强。业绩增长预计主要系H20 供应量快速提升，互联网等需求旺盛。按照此前IDC 数据，截至24Q2 浪潮在国内服务器市场依然保持市占率领先，且Q2 开始扭转前几个季度下滑趋势，开始恢复上升；AI 服务器优势更加明显，市占率恢复至47%（24Q1 约36%），供应正常化的强者恒强格局在服务器行业中持续验证。Key points of investment:
The company released its 24Q3 quarterly report. The company achieved revenue of 41.06 billion yuan in a single quarter of 24Q3, +76.1% year over year; net profit to mother of 0.7 billion yuan, +51.1% year over year. The company achieved revenue of 83.13 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +72.3% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 1.29 billion yuan (yoy +67%). The results are close to the median previously forecast.
Inventory continues to rise and is at a normal pace of delivery. Inventory at the end of the 24Q3 period was 38.5 billion yuan, up 6.6 billion yuan from the end of the 24Q2 period and 19.4 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, laying the foundation for subsequent quarterly growth. In addition, accounts receivable at the end of the 24Q3 period were 23.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2 billion yuan over 24Q2; accounts payable were 37.1 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3 billion yuan over 24Q2, which is in a normal delivery rhythm.
It is expected that H20 will become the main driving force for growth and confirm the strength of the strong players. The expected increase in performance is mainly due to a rapid increase in H20 supply and strong demand from the Internet. According to previous IDC data, as of 24Q2, the wave remained leading in market share in the domestic server market, and Q2 began to reverse the downward trend in the previous few quarters and began to rise again; the advantage of AI servers was more obvious, and the market share recovered to 47% (about 36% in 24Q1), and the pattern of strong players with normalized supply continued to be verified in the server industry.
Net interest rates have begun to recover, and the advantages of scale have been reflected. The gross profit margin in Q3 was 5.6%. At this stage, the high concentration of customers is under pressure, but the absolute value of the company's expenses is relatively stable, so the net interest rate has rebounded to 1.7% (Q2 is 1.2%) during the period of rapid revenue growth. The net interest rate level is expected to continue to rise in the future as the customer structure and competitive landscape are optimized.
Domestic AI chips are ready to go. Starting with 24Q4, domestic AI chips are expected to enter a stage of rapid growth. In the future, with the diversification of chip supply, the core capabilities that Wave has accumulated over a long period of time will be further revealed to support the company's medium- to long-term growth.
Maintain a “buy” rating. Maintaining the profit forecast, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 2.41, 2.85, and 3.4 billion yuan in 24-26. Based on the company's market share advantage in AI servers, the recovery in demand for general-purpose servers, and our judgment on growth space under long-term computing power demand, it is combined to verify the prosperity of the company's inventory and contract liabilities, and overall maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The external environment affects supply chain stability; increased industry competition puts pressure on gross margins.
