PETROCHINA(601857):STRONG BEAT IN 3Q24 EARNINGS;EXPECT LOWER EARNINGS QOQ FOR 4Q24
PETROCHINA(601857):STRONG BEAT IN 3Q24 EARNINGS;EXPECT LOWER EARNINGS QOQ FOR 4Q24
In addition, the operating profit of its natural gas marketing segment surged 89% QoQ to RMB8.5bn on smaller loss on imported gas and slightly higher gas price. All these overwhelmed the earnings declines at the other segments.PetroChina's net profit grew 2% QoQ to RMB43.9bn in 3Q24, 41% above our forecast. The gap mainly came from the upstream segment which surprisingly posted higher earnings despite decline in realised oil price. Looking ahead, we expect its earnings to drop 26% QoQ in 4Q24 on further decline in oil price and higher expenses. We reduce our 2024-26 forecasts by 5-11% after post results adjustments and lowering our oil price forecast for 2024 (Brent from US$84/bbl to US$80/bbl). Given the attractive dividend yield of its H shares, we reiterate our BUY call with target price reduced to HK$8.03.
中國石油的淨利潤在2024年第三季度增長了2%至人民幣439億元，比我們的預測高出41%。這一差距主要源自上游-腦機領域，儘管實現的油價下降，但盈利出現意外增加。展望未來，我們預計其盈利在2024年第四季度將環比下降26%，因爲油價進一步下滑，支出增加。在發佈結果後，我們將2024-26年的預測調整了5-11%，並將2024年的油價預測調低（從每桶美元84調整到每桶美元80）。鑑於其H股具有吸引人的股息收益率，我們重申買入看漲的建議，目標價調低至8.03港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The operating profit of its upstream segment surprisingly grew 8% QoQ to RMB52.6bn in 3Q24 despite a 5% QoQ drop in realised oil price. The negative impact of lower oil price was more than offset by lower windfall tax and resources tax, lower exploration expenses (down RMB1.8bn QoQ) and slightly higher gas price. The company also booked the subsidy for tight gas production (instead of in 4Q as its usual practice) as it received the money earlier this year.
其上游-腦機領域的營業利潤在2024年第三季度意外增長了8%，達到人民幣526億元，儘管實現的油價環比下降5%。更低的油價對負面影響比例被較低風險稅、資源稅、更低的勘探支出（環比減少人民幣18億元）和略有增加的氣價所抵消。該公司還計入了緊缺氣體生產的補貼（而不是按照慣例在第四季度），因爲今年早些時候收到了這筆款項。
In addition, the operating profit of its natural gas marketing segment surged 89% QoQ to RMB8.5bn on smaller loss on imported gas and slightly higher gas price. All these overwhelmed the earnings declines at the other segments.
此外，其天然氣營銷領域的營業利潤在2024年第三季度激增了89%，達到人民幣85億元，主要來自進口燃料幣損失減少和略微增加的燃料幣價格。所有這些使其它板塊的盈利下降完全被壓倒。
For 4Q24, we now expect its earnings to drop 26% QoQ. The key driver will be the significant earnings decline at its upstream segment on further decline in oil price and the booking of higher costs, including exploration expenses. The expected higher earnings at the natural gas marketing segment and the recovery at the oil downstream segments is just too little to change the big picture as its upstream segment accounted for 77% of its operating profit in 9M24.
對於2024年第四季度，我們現在預計其盈利將環比下降26%。主要原因在於其上游-腦機領域的明顯盈利下降，因爲油價進一步下滑以及勘探支出成本增加。預期在天然氣營銷領域盈利增加和石油下游領域的復甦將無法改變局面，因爲其上游-腦機領域在2024年前9個月的營業利潤中佔比77%。
Despite cuts in our earnings forecasts, the company's H shares still offer attractive dividend yield of 7.5-7.7% for 2024-26E.
儘管我們調低了盈利預測，該公司的H股仍然爲2024-26年提供7.5-7.7%的吸引人股息收益率。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in oil price.
油價大幅下跌。
Significant impairment against its assets.
對其資產進行了重大減值。
Valuation
估值
We reduce our target price for its H shares from HK$8.65 to HK$8.03 to reflect the cuts in our earnings forecasts. Our target valuation is still 5.5% average dividend yield for 2024-26E.
我們將H股的目標價從HK$8.65降至HK$8.03，以反映我們盈利預測的削減。我們的目標估值仍爲2024-26E年平均股息率5.5%。
We also lower our target price for its A shares from RMB11.15 to RMB10.82. We still base our target price on its 3-month average A-H premium, which has expanded from 41% to 47% since late August.
我們還將A股的目標價從RMB11.15降至RMB10.82。我們仍將目標價基於其3個月平均A-H溢價，自8月底以來從41%擴大至47%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
