单三季度投资收入同比高增，前三季度累计降幅有所收窄。1）投资业务方面，前三季度公司投资收益+公允价值变动损益为同比-15.8%至10.65 亿元，降幅较上半年（-39.7%）有所收窄；其中单三季度为3.53 亿元，环比-11.2%，同比+326.8%。2）信用业务方面，三季度末公司融出资金较年初-10.0%至299亿元，略好于市场下滑幅度（-13.0%）；股质业务持续压降，买入返售金融资产较年初-63.2%至38 亿元。Incident: Zhongtai Securities released its 2024 three-quarter report. For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income and net profit of 7.424 and 0.503 billion yuan, respectively, -20.0% and -73.5% year-on-year, and net profit after deducting 0.49 billion yuan, or -57.4% year-on-year. Among them, the company's operating income and net profit to mother for the third quarter were 2.325 and 0.101 billion yuan respectively, -12.3%, -60.2% year-on-year, and -9.2% and +45.0% month-on-month respectively.
Investment banks and investment businesses dragged down performance, and management expenses remained rigid. On the revenue side, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest, and investment income for the first three quarters were 19.73, 6.37, 1.507, 1.159, and 1.065 billion yuan, respectively, -13.0%, -2.6%, -10.0%, and -15.8% year-on-year (of which investment income excluding annual consolidation of 10,000 funds generated equity valuation income of 0.658 billion yuan and long-term equity investment, same as below); on the cost side, management expenses were +1.7% to 5.638 billion yuan. Compared with the management expense ratio +16.2 pct to 75.9% year over year, credit impairment losses were -20.7% to 0.128 billion yuan year over year, and asset quality remained stable.
The decline in the brokerage and investment banking business is basically in line with the market, and the asset management business remains steady. 1) Brokerage business. The decline in the company's revenue in the first three quarters was comparable to the market level (-11.1% year-on-year share turnover in the first three quarters). 2) Investment business. According to Wind data, the company's IPO, refinancing, and bond underwriting scales in the first three quarters were 1.6, 1, and 163.3 billion yuan, respectively, -76.7%, -83.9%, and -9.0% year-on-year. The scale of market IPOs, refinancing, and bond underwriting was -85.8%, -78.7%, and +1.2%, respectively. The decline in equity financing was basically consistent with the market under the phased tightening of regulations. 3) In the asset management business, revenue was relatively steady. By the end of the third quarter, the size of the company's holding subsidiary Wanjia Fund's non-monetary and equity funds was +3.2% and +8.9%, respectively, from the beginning of the year to 162.5 and 72.3 billion yuan.
Investment revenue increased year-on-year in the third quarter of a single year, and the cumulative decline in the first three quarters narrowed. 1) In terms of investment business, the company's investment income+fair value change profit and loss in the first three quarters was -15.8% to 1.065 billion yuan, which was narrower than in the first half of the year (-39.7%); of these, the single third quarter was 0.353 billion yuan, -11.2% month-on-month, and +326.8% year-on-year. 2) In terms of credit business, the company's financing capital at the end of the third quarter was -10.0% to 29.9 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, slightly better than the market decline (-13.0%); the share business continued to drop, and the purchase and resale of financial assets was -63.2% to 3.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year.
Investment advice: The company is expected to achieve net profit of 1.178, 1.738, and 2.295 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, of -34.5%, +47.4%, and +32.1% year-on-year, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 2024 PB of 1.14 times, maintaining an “increase” rating.
Risk warning: capital market fluctuates sharply; market turnover falls sharply; regulatory policies are tightening beyond expectations
