内销淡季承压，Q4 有望回暖。公司收入下滑的主要原因为，国内三季度消费市场偏淡季；9 月初上市的新品预售无法计入收入，实际收入确认为Q4；科沃斯扫地机整体我们预计有10%左右的下滑，洗地机11%的增长，其中扫地机内销下滑比较明显，海外欧洲市场增长，美国渠道仍有亚马逊销售权拖累，洗地机内销及欧亚均有提升。由于国内占比较高及销售特性，我们认为Q4 或为公司销售拐点，国补叠加确收节奏将带来明显增长。23H2 起公司调整产品战略布局，补足功能组合和价格带布局，并积极推动降本举措，强调平台、模块和零组件复用。新品来看，T50 和X8 的上市，在产品组合完备的情况下公司加大了市场投入力度，T50 成功打造成为爆品。添可品牌在行业均价下行压力下，积极提升成本优势，持续推出差异化产品，海外同样表现亮眼。Key points of investment:
The company's revenue and profit fell short of expectations. In 2024Q1-Q3, Covos achieved operating income of 10.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; realized net profit to mother of 0.615 billion yuan, an increase of 2% year-on-year; realized deducted non-net profit of 0.531 billion yuan, an increase of 2% over the previous year.
Among them, in the Q3 single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 3.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; realized net profit to mother of 0.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69%; and realized deducted non-net profit to mother of -0.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 265%. The main reasons for the decline in net profit attributable to mother are: 1. Pre-sale of various new products from the Covos and Tianke brands began, and the company increased its investment in market expenses; 2. Compared with last year, sales of new products were mainly delivered in the fourth quarter; 3. Laying a good foundation for overseas new product launches, the company took more active actions to accelerate the elimination of slow overseas sales products, leading to a decrease in gross profit; the reason for the decline in net profit and loss after deducting net profit and loss due to increased changes in the fair value of transactional financial assets and non-current financial assets during the reporting period led to an increase in irregular profit and loss during the reporting period.
Domestic sales are under pressure during the off-season and are expected to pick up in Q4. The main reason for the decline in the company's revenue was the poor season in the domestic consumer market in the third quarter; pre-sales of new products launched in early September were not included in revenue, and actual revenue was confirmed as Q4; overall, we expect a decline of about 10% for Covos sweepers, and an increase of 11% for floor scrubbers. Among them, domestic sales of sweepers declined significantly, overseas European markets grew, and the US channel was still being dragged down by Amazon's sales rights, and domestic sales of floor scrubbers increased in Europe and Asia. Due to the relatively high domestic share and sales characteristics, we believe that Q4 may be an inflection point for the company's sales, and the superposition of national supplements will bring significant growth. Since 23H2, the company has adjusted the product strategy layout to supplement the functional mix and price band layout, and actively promoted cost reduction measures, emphasizing the reuse of platforms, modules and components. Looking at new products, with the launch of the T50 and X8, the company increased its market investment with a complete product portfolio, and the T50 successfully became a hot product. Under downward pressure from the average price in the industry, the Tianko brand actively enhances its cost advantage and continues to launch differentiated products. Overseas, too, it has performed well.
The gross margin has increased, and there is a mistake in spending. 24Q3's sales expense ratio increased by 3 pcts year over year. The main reason was that Q3 was a big promotion, and the company's revenue was not confirmed during the same period, resulting in a cost error; the gross margin was +0.9 pcts year over year, and the sales share of the two high-margin products, T30 and X5, increased.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. The company's domestic sales of new products are about to usher in a period of concentrated shipment, and overseas growth was realized, but due to increased cost investment, we lowered our 24-26 profit forecast to 1.16/1.43/1.72 billion yuan (previous value was 1.28/1.57/1.82 billion yuan), +90%/23%/20% year over year, corresponding PE was 25/21/17 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; the penetration rate of sweeper robots and floor washing machine products falls short of expectations. The company announced a response notice on the “Inquiry Letter on Abnormal Stock Trading Fluctuations in Covos Robotics Co., Ltd.” in May 2024. Here is a special reminder.
