资产质量稳定，加大拨备计提力度。期末不良率0.97%，关注率1.56%，均与6 月末持平，资产质量稳健。但公司进一步加大了拨备计提力度，前三季度信用资产减值损失计提同比高增47.9%，期末拨备覆盖率330%，较6 月末提升了6.2 个百分点，较年初提升了25.8 个百分点。我们计算的前三季度拨备前利润同比增长了22.2%，同时抵扣和税收优惠等因素带来当期所得税费用为-0.55 亿元（去年同期为0.32 亿元），也对净利润有一个明显提振，因此公司加大拨备计提平滑利润增速，进一步增厚安全垫。Performance continues to increase. The first three quarters of 2024 achieved revenue of 3.322 billion yuan (YoY, +14.67%) and net profit to mother of 1.442 billion yuan (YoY, +14.57%). Among them, single-quarter revenue and net profit to mother increased by 14.30% and 13.46% year-on-year respectively in the third quarter. The annualized weighted average ROE for the first three quarters was 11.13%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points over the previous year.
The decline in net interest spreads narrowed, and loan investment improved marginally. The company's net interest income fell 1.3% year on year in the first three quarters, narrowing from the 2.4% decline in the first half of the year. In terms of price, the net interest spread disclosed by the company in the first three quarters was 1.52%, down 23 bps year on year (net interest spread narrowed 32 bps year on year in the first half of the year), down 2 bps from the first half of the year, and the decline narrowed markedly. In terms of scale, total assets at the end of the period were 211.3 billion yuan, total loans of 125 billion yuan, and total deposits of 157.5 billion yuan, up 7.3%, 9.8% and 8.2%, respectively. Compared with the second quarter, the rate of loan investment increased in the third quarter. The overall scale of the company's financial investment remained stable this year, with net loans accounting for 57.4% of total assets at the end of the year, up 1.4 percentage points from the beginning of the year.
Non-interest income continues to rise. Non-interest revenue of 1.04 billion yuan was achieved in the first three quarters, up 77.9% year-on-year, accounting for 31.3% of revenue, up 1.1 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, investment income and other non-interest income was 1 billion yuan, an increase of 73% over the previous year.
Asset quality is stable, and provision and planning efforts have been increased. The year-end defect rate was 0.97% and the attention rate was 1.56%, all the same as at the end of June, and the asset quality was stable. However, the company further increased its provision accrual efforts. Credit asset impairment loss accruals increased by 47.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and the end-of-period provision coverage rate was 330%, up 6.2 percentage points from the end of June, and 25.8 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year. We calculated that profit before provision for the first three quarters increased 22.2% year over year. At the same time, factors such as deductions and tax benefits brought current income tax expenses of -0.055 billion yuan (0.032 billion yuan in the same period last year), which also clearly boosted net profit. Therefore, the company increased the provision plan to smooth profit growth and further increase the safety cushion.
Investment advice: The company has broad credit investment space in Yuecheng District and Yiwu District, and at the same time, it has achieved space expansion through active participation in acquisitions. The company has outstanding economic and institutional advantages in the region where it operates, and we are waiting for the market in the small and micro sectors to pick up.
We maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 1.94/2.19/2.51 billion yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1%/12.9%/14.9%. The current stock price corresponds to the 2024-2026 PE value of 5.2x/4.6x/4.0x, and the PB value is 0.55x/0.50x/0.45x. The valuation is low, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations and will drag down the company's net interest spreads and asset quality.
