收入温和增长，海外产能爬坡及汇兑损失致利润承压。收入端，3Q24 赛力斯/ 蔚来/ 上汽大众销量分别同比+45.4%/+11.6%/-21.0% ， 环比+40.8%/+7.8%/-1.5%，我们认为收入增长主要系赛力斯、蔚来等新势力客户放量带动一体化大铸件及车身结构件收入释放。利润端，公司3Q24 毛利率14.5%，同环比-3.2/+0.6ppt，净利率0.9%，同环比-1.9/-0.3ppt，我们认为主要系：1）墨西哥圣米格尔工厂今年开始投产，爬坡前期利润承压，2）铝价回落，且上一季度的原材料价格补差到位；3）2Q24 墨西哥比索贬值导致大额汇兑损失。3Q24 results fell short of our expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, +29.2%/+1.9%, net profit to mother of 15.36 million yuan, -57.1%/-22.3%, after deducting non-net profit of 7.1 million yuan, -76.2%/-45.7% YoY. The 3Q24 performance fell short of our expectations, mainly due to the decline in overseas business, exchange losses, and rising raw material prices, which dragged down profits.
Development trends
Revenue grew moderately, overseas production capacity declined, and exchange losses weighed on profits. On the revenue side, 3Q24 Celis/ Weilai/ SAIC Volkswagen's sales volume was +45.4%/+11.6%/-21.0%, respectively, and +40.8%/+7.8%/-1.5% month-on-month respectively. We believe that revenue growth is mainly due to sales volume from new forces such as Cyrus and NIO driving the release of revenue from integrated large castings and body structural parts. On the profit side, the company's 3Q24 gross profit margin was 14.5%, year-on-month -3.2/+0.6ppt, net interest rate -1.9/-0.3ppt. We think the main factors are: 1) the San Miguel plant in Mexico began operation this year, and profits were pressured in the first quarter; 2) aluminum prices fell, and the raw material price gap in the previous quarter was in place; 3) the depreciation of the 2Q24 Mexican peso led to large exchange losses.
The integration of Bailian continues to advance, and we look forward to a restoration of profitability. By department, we estimate that 3Q is mainly due to the fact that Pailian's Mexican plant suffered losses due to factors such as large exchange losses, which dragged down overall performance; the profitability of Pailian's European plant and headquarters continued to improve. Looking ahead to the 4Q, we believe that Pailian's profit is expected to record a significant recovery: 1) the gradual commissioning of new orders, leading to increased revenue, release of scale effects, and reduced exposure to exchange losses; 2) lower freight costs along with the transformation of air transport to shipping and the increase in localized production; 3) continuous optimization of management and procurement, and continued integration.
Domestic integrated die-casting customers are of high quality, and overseas die-casting production capacity is relatively scarce, which is supported by subsequent growth. We believe: 1) On the domestic side, new energy sources are rapidly penetrating into the general trend of integrated die-casting. As an industry leader, the company is already supporting leading new customers such as Celis, NIO, and Ideal. We look forward to the launch of new models by our core customers in 2025 and the expansion of new customers to drive the company's continued growth. 2) Overseas, high-pressure casting production capacity is scarce in the US, and the overall production capacity of European OEMs and third-party foundry is declining. We believe that compared to overseas suppliers, the company has multiple advantages such as cost, response speed, and capital investment, and we expect to receive more orders for chassis subframes, shells and other products based on low pressure casting and gravity casting processes.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering continued pressure on overseas profitability, we lowered our 24/25 profit forecast by 32.5%/13.7% to 0.21/0.44 billion yuan. Current stock prices correspond to 37.2/17.7 price-earnings ratios for 24/25. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and keeping the target price of 28 yuan unchanged, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 41.2/19.7 times in 24/25, with 16.72% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
Prices of raw materials have risen sharply, and sales to core customers have fallen short of expectations.
