MINDRAY(300760):EXPECT DOMESTIC BUSINESS TO REBOUND FROM 2025
MINDRAY(300760):EXPECT DOMESTIC BUSINESS TO REBOUND FROM 2025
Maintain BUY. We lowered our earnings forecasts with target price adjusted to RMB 328.81 (WACC: 9.3%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%).Mindray reported 9M24 revenue of RMB29.5bn, up by 8.0% YoY. Attributable net profit increased by 8.2% YoY to RMB10.6bn. Revenue in 3Q24 grew by 1.4% YoY to RMB9.0bn while attributable net profit decreased by 9.3% YoY to RMB3.1bn. The slowdown in revenue growth can primarily be attributed to lackluster procurement activities in domestic public hospitals and weakened demand for IVD testing, particularly in lower-tier hospitals. Consequently, Mindray's domestic revenue fell by 9.7% YoY in 3Q24. Additionally, GPM in 3Q24 decreased by 4.8pcts QoQ due to updates in accounting guidelines.
邁瑞報告了截至2024年第九個月的人民幣295億元的營業收入，同比增長8.0%。歸屬淨利潤同比增長8.2%，達到106億元人民幣。2024年第三季度的營業收入同比增長1.4%，達到90億元人民幣，而歸屬淨利潤同比下降9.3%，跌至31億元人民幣。收入增長放緩主要歸因於國內公立醫院採購活動疲軟以及IVD檢測需求疲弱，特別是在低端醫院。因此，邁瑞2024年第三季度的國內營收同比下降了9.7%。此外，2024年第三季度的營運利潤率由於會計準則更新而環比下降了4.8個百分點。
Domestic market remained under pressure, although signs of recovery in procurement are emerging. 1) IVD: Domestic revenue grew by 17% YoY in 9M24. Nationwide DRG implementation had a negative impact on the diagnosis demand in lower-tier hospitals which were the main contributors to Mindray's domestic IVD revenue. To counter act this, Mindray actively expanded its IVD business into top hospitals through its TLA and IT solutions. We expect Mindray to install over 150 TLAs in 2024E. 2) MIS: Domestic revenue grew by over 10% YoY in 9M24 driven by the strong volume ramp- up of ultra-high-end Resona A20 ultrasound system. 3) PMLS: Domestic revenue decreased by 28% YoY in 9M24. The decline was influenced by constrained hospital funding amid a challenging macroeconomic environment. However, with accelerated issuance of special bonds, and stronger government support to address local debt issues, we expect domestic equipment demand to recover in 2025E.
儘管國內市場持續承壓，但採購復甦跡象正逐漸顯現。1）IVD：2024年前9個月國內營收同比增長17%。全國範圍DRG政策的實施對下層醫院的診斷需求產生了負面影響，這些醫院是邁瑞國內IVD營收的主要貢獻者。爲了應對這一情況，邁瑞積極通過其TLA和It解決方案將IVD業務拓展至一流醫院。我們預計邁瑞將在2024年安裝超過150台TLA。2）MIS：2024年前9個月，國內營收同比增長超過10%，受超高端Resona A20超聲系統產量擴大的推動。3）PMLS：2024年前9個月，國內營收同比下降28%。這一下降受到了挑戰性宏觀經濟環境中受限的醫院資金的影響。然而，隨着專項債券的加速發行以及更加強勁的政府支持解決地方債務問題，我們預計2025年國內設備需求將得到恢復。
Healthy growth in overseas business. In 3Q24, Mindray's overseas revenue increased by 18.6% YoY with strong performances in Europe (+29% YoY), APAC (+32% YoY) and LatAm (+25% YoY), although there was some weakness in the US market. Driven by breakthroughs in medium-to-large volume labs, Mindray's overseas IVD revenue increased by 32% YoY in 9M24, accounting for 28% of total overseas revenue. Mindray has accelerated its overseas localization efforts. As of 3Q24, Mindray launched local manufacturing in 9 countries, 8 of which are related to IVD. Additionally, emerging businesses such as minimally invasive surgery (+50+% YoY), AED (+50+% YoY) and animal medical (+30+% YoY) grew significantly in 9M24. These emerging businesses contributed over 10% to Mindray's overseas revenue. We expect IVD and emerging businesses to become the primary growth drivers for Mindray's overseas businesses.
境外業務健康增長。2024年第三季度，邁瑞的境外營業收入同比增長18.6%，歐洲(+29% YoY)、亞太(+32% YoY)和拉丁美洲(+25% YoY)表現強勁，儘管美國市場存在一定的疲軟。受中大型實驗室突破性進展推動，邁瑞2024年前9個月的海外IVD營收同比增長32%，佔海外總營收的28%。邁瑞加快了海外本地化努力。至2024年第三季度，邁瑞在9個國家啓動了本地製造，其中8個與IVD相關。此外，微創手術(+50% YoY)、AED(+50% YoY)和動物醫療(+30% YoY)等新興業務在2024年前9個月有顯著增長。這些新興業務爲邁瑞海外營收貢獻了超過10%。我們預計IVD和新興業務將成爲邁瑞海外業務的主要增長驅動力。
Maintain BUY. We lowered our earnings forecasts with target price adjusted to RMB 328.81 (WACC: 9.3%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%).
維持買入。我們下調了盈利預測，目標價調整爲328.81令吉（加權平均資本成本（WACC）: 9.3%，終端增長率: 3.0%）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
