公司2024Q1-Q3 实现营收14.33 亿元（同增26%），归母净利润1.08 亿元（同增17%），扣非归母净利润0.89 亿元（同增6%）。其中2024Q3 公司营收4.60 亿元（同增6%），归母净利润0.42 亿元（同增54%），其中政府补助近0.2 亿元，扣非归母净利润0.26 亿元（同增1%）。盈利端，2024Q3 公司毛利率同减3pct 至42.82%，主要系澳麦原粮成本持续上涨所致，关注11 月原材料采购季行情，2025 年成本或将回落，销售/管理费用率分别同比-4pct/+1pct 至28.96%/5.95%，三季度销售费用管控严格，净利率同增3pct至9.17%。On October 30, 2024, Sehmak Foods released its report for the third quarter of 2024.
Key points of investment
Steady growth in revenue and significant optimization of expense ratios
In 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.433 billion yuan (26% increase), net profit to mother of 0.108 billion yuan (same increase of 17%), net profit of 0.089 billion yuan after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.089 billion yuan (same increase of 6%). Among them, in 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 0.46 billion yuan (same increase of 6%), net profit due to mother was 0.042 billion yuan (same increase of 54%), of which the government subsidy was nearly 0.02 billion yuan, after deducting net profit not to mother of 0.026 billion yuan (same increase of 1%). On the profit side, 2024Q3's gross margin decreased by 3 pcts to 42.82%, mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of raw materials purchased in November. Costs may fall in 2025. Sales/management expenses ratios were -4 pct/+1pct to 28.96%/5.95%, respectively. Sales expenses were strictly controlled in the third quarter, and the net interest rate increased by 3 pct to 9.17%.
Endogenous extension contributes to improving the efficiency of Douyin channel fee control
By product, Desai Kang Valley is developing a major customer, Yili. Currently, production capacity is still climbing. Through integrating the supply chain, Seema is expected to bring cost advantages and brand endorsements to Desai Kang Valley and exert synergistic effects; in the field of health, protein powder continues to promote new supplementary SKUs, break through offline channels, and rapidly release scale. At the same time, the company has launched a variety of oral liquid drinks to position Chinese health and beauty. The development strategy will be adjusted according to market feedback. Looking at the snack channel by channel, the snack channel maintains the original policy and continues to follow up; the Douyin channel continues to increase, but the company restrains e-commerce platform expenses and improves operational efficiency. Currently, Douyin channel products are mostly sold in a combination form, including drainage products and profit products, to smooth channel profit margins.
Profit forecasting
As a leader in domestic oats, the company continues to be deeply involved in the oat field, smoothing out the risk of cost fluctuations through the layout of diverse raw materials. At the same time, under the collaborative advantages of the main oat business, the Big Health Strategy is progressing steadily. We are optimistic that the company's dominant position in the market will continue to be consolidated. According to the three-quarter report, we adjusted the 2024-2026 EPS to 0.52/0.65/0.75 (previous value was 0.54/0.68/0.88), respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 24/20/17 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion falling short of expectations, cold food promotion falling short of expectations, decline in supermarket traffic, etc.
