Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report: 2024Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, +18.41% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.103 billion yuan, +23.05% year-on-year. Q3 The company's revenue was 0.476 billion yuan, +41.02% YoY; net profit to mother was 0.049 billion yuan, +38.99% YoY.
Commentary:
Sales/management/R&D/financial expenses were well controlled, and Q3 net margin increased month-on-month. The company's gross margin/net margin for Q1-Q3 was 40.20%/9.12%, +0.75pct/-0.12pct, sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 6.99%/8.16%/11.69%/-0.51%, respectively, and -0.54 pct/-0.02pct/-0.21pct/-0.17pct. Q3 gross margin/net margin was 39.91%/9.79%, respectively, -0.3pct/+2.24pct month-on-month, respectively.
The company's Q3 performance growth was mainly due to increased revenue from the camera module optoelectronic active inspection business, while the laser business maintained steady growth, making a steady contribution to profit growth.
Laser: Optimized product structure, targeted research and development, with good results. The company is a leader in MOPA lasers in China. The company continues to increase R&D efforts, optimize product structure, and target R&D in the actual application of lasers, with good results. The manufacturing PMI data for July-September was 49.4/49.1/49.8, which is below the booming line, and the manufacturing boom is weak; it is expected that with the recovery of manufacturing prosperity, the company's laser business will usher in further growth.
Intelligent equipment: The company's multi-point layout results are gradually showing results in new energy, consumer electronics, and passive components. 1) Consumer electronics: The consumer electronics industry has achieved growth driven by multiple factors such as AI phones, AI chips, AR glasses, etc., and the company closely follows the cutting-edge needs of the market and actively responds to customer needs. 2) New energy: The company actively lays out the perovskite field, provides perovskite die-cutting equipment and has been recognized by customers. By the end of the third quarter, it had received orders from many customers, and delivery and acceptance work continued to advance, while actively cooperating with customers to land on GW grade production lines. 3) Passive components: The company insists on refining and strengthening in the field of passive components, and aims to create high-precision passive component processing and manufacturing equipment with the goal of domestic substitution.
Investment advice: Considering the boom in the manufacturing industry and the progress of the XR industry falling short of expectations, we lowered the company's performance expectations. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.471 billion yuan (previous value 1.779 billion yuan), 1.901 billion yuan (previous value 2.299 billion yuan), and 2.503 billion yuan respectively, and realized net profit to mother of 0.149 billion yuan (previous value 0.214 billion yuan), 0.203 billion yuan (previous value 0.289 billion yuan), and 0.283 billion yuan, respectively In billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.57 yuan, 2.13 yuan, and 2.98 yuan, respectively. Referring to the valuation level of comparable companies, considering that the company, as a domestic MOPA laser leader, is actively expanding downstream lithium battery/photovoltaic laser equipment and consumer electronics optical inspection equipment, and has made positive progress, with its own technical advantages, the market share is expected to gradually increase, giving 28 times PE in 2025, and the target price will be adjusted to 59.64 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Consumer electronics industry boom falls short of expectations; manufacturing boom falls short of expectations; development of new application scenarios falls short of expectations; overseas business expansion falls short of expectations; new product development falls short of expectations; accounts receivable repayment falls short of expectations, inventory calculation risks, etc.