大客户展望后期乐观：2024 年第三季度，特斯拉全球交付 46.3 万辆电动车创季度交付新高；储能装机量达到6.9GWh，同比增长73%，但较Q2 创纪录的9.4GWh 下滑。受益于汽车行业景气稼动率提升及产品结构优化，公司毛利率不降反升，2024Q3 单季度毛利率为25.03%，同比改善0.50pct，环比改善0.36pct；净利率13.53%，同比-0.86pct，环比-0.64pct。展望后期，特斯拉在三季度财报电话会议上表示，汽车业务仍将按计划从2025 年上半年开始提供更经济实惠的新车型，其预计2025 年的汽车销量将增长20%-30%，叠加大客户AI 服务器和机器人等远期规划，将成为公司长远增长的基石。Incident: The company announced that in the first three quarters of 2024, it achieved operating income of 3.675 billion yuan, +9.75% year over year; net profit to mother of 0.483 billion yuan, +28.97% year over year.
Exchange rate fluctuations affect revenue recognition and financial expenses: The company's overseas revenue accounts for a slightly higher share (2024H1 accounts for 79.30% of overseas revenue). As the US began a cycle of interest rate cuts, the appreciation of RMB in the third quarter had a certain impact on the company's apparent revenue confirmation and exchange. In 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, +6.82% YoY and -1.73% month-on-month; net profit to mother was 0.18 billion yuan, +0.95% YoY and -7.20%.
Among them, the company's 2024Q3 financial expenses were 30.06 million yuan, and 2024Q2 was financial revenue of 8.67 million yuan.
Major customers are optimistic about the later stages: in the third quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered 0.463 million electric vehicles globally, a quarterly high; installed energy storage capacity reached 6.9 GWh, an increase of 73% year over year, but down from the record 9.4 GWh in Q2. Benefiting from the improved operating rate of the automobile industry and the optimization of the product structure, the company's gross margin did not decline but rose. 2024Q3's gross margin in a single quarter was 25.03%, up 0.50 pct year on year and 0.36 pct month on month; net profit margin was 13.53%, -0.86 pct year on year, and -0.64 pct month on month. Looking ahead to the later stages, Tesla said in the third quarter earnings conference call that the automobile business will continue to provide new, more affordable models starting in the first half of 2025. It is expected that car sales will increase by 20%-30% in 2025. Combining long-term plans such as customer AI servers and robots will become the cornerstone of the company's long-term growth.
Forced redemption improves the company's capital structure and operating efficiency: “World Operation Transfer Bonds” triggered a conditional redemption clause from September 27 to October 28, 2024, and the company decided to exercise early redemption rights. Investors can only choose to forcibly redeem at a face price of 100 yuan/share plus accrued interest for the period, in addition to continuing to trade through the secondary market within a specified period of time or converting shares according to the conversion price of 17.59 yuan/share. After the debt conversion adjustment is completed, it helps reduce financial costs and improve the company's capital structure and operational efficiency.
Investment proposal: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 5.434/6.74/8.315 billion yuan and net profit of 0.68/0.885/1.103 billion yuan in 2024-2026. The corresponding PE was 27.02/20.76/16.66 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Risks such as downstream demand falling short of expectations, exchange rate risk, and increased industry competition.
