SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY(601225):3Q24 RESULTS IN LINE; UPBEAT ON LONG-TERM VALUE
SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY(601225):3Q24 RESULTS IN LINE; UPBEAT ON LONG-TERM VALUE
Comments: 1) Coal output continued to increase YoY but fell QoQ in 3Q24. In 1–3Q24, the firm's commercial coal output rose 2.8% YoY to 127.77mnt. Sales volume of self-produced and purchased coal rose 2.4% and 10.4% YoY to 125.98mnt and 69.97mnt. In 3Q24, output of commercial coal and sales volume of self-produced coal rose 2.9% (-8.0% QoQ) and 5.8% YoY (+0.3% QoQ) to 41.37mn and 42.60mnt.3Q24results in line with our expectations
第3季度24年度結果與我們的預期相符
Shaanxi Coal Industry announced its 3Q24 results. In 1–3Q24, revenue fell 1.6% YoY to Rmb125.4bn , gross profit fell 8.2% YoY to Rmb43.6bn, attributable net profit fell 1.5% YoY to Rmb15.9bn (implying an EPS of Rmb1.64), and recurring net profit fell 13.9% YoY to Rmb16.3bn.
陝西煤業宣佈其第3季度24年度的業績。在1-3季度24年度，營業收入同比下降1.6％至人民幣1254億元，毛利潤同比下降8.2％至人民幣436億元，歸屬淨利潤同比下降1.5％至人民幣159億元（暗示每股收益爲人民幣1.64），經常性淨利潤同比下降13.9％至人民幣163億元。
In 3Q24, revenue rose 10.7% YoY and fell 8.1% QoQ to Rmb40.7bn, gross profit dropped 1.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ to Rmb13.7bn, attributable net profit rose 17.1% YoY and fell 8.8% QoQ to Rmb5.39bn, recurring net profit fell 3.7% YoY and 11.4% QoQ to Rmb5.17bn. The firm's core earnings remained solid, in line with our expectations.
在第3季度24年度，營業收入同比上升10.7％，環比下降8.1％至人民幣407億元，毛利潤同比下降1.5％，環比下降12.2％至人民幣137億元，歸屬淨利潤同比上升17.1％，環比下降8.8％至人民幣53.9億元，經常性淨利潤同比下降3.7％，環比下降11.4％至人民幣51.7億元。公司的核心盈利保持穩健，與我們的預期相符。
Comments: 1) Coal output continued to increase YoY but fell QoQ in 3Q24. In 1–3Q24, the firm's commercial coal output rose 2.8% YoY to 127.77mnt. Sales volume of self-produced and purchased coal rose 2.4% and 10.4% YoY to 125.98mnt and 69.97mnt. In 3Q24, output of commercial coal and sales volume of self-produced coal rose 2.9% (-8.0% QoQ) and 5.8% YoY (+0.3% QoQ) to 41.37mn and 42.60mnt.
評論：1）煤炭產量在第3季度24年度繼續同比增加，但環比下降。在1-3季度24年度，公司的商業煤炭產量同比增加2.8％至127.77百萬噸。自產和購進煤炭的銷售量同比分別上升2.4％和10.4％至125.98百萬噸和69.97百萬噸。在第3季度24年度，商業煤炭產量和自產煤銷售量分別同比上升2.9％（環比下降8.0％）和5.8％（同比上升0.3％）至4137萬噸和42.60百萬噸。
2) Revenue per tonne of coal declined. Based on coal sales revenue and sales volume, we estimate that the firm's sales income per tonne of coal fell 6.2% YoY to Rmb618 in 1–3Q24.The ASP of 6,000kcal thermal block coal at Kengkou in Yulin, Shaanxi fell 9.7% YoY in the same period.
2）煤炭單位銷售收入下降。根據煤炭銷售收入和銷售量，我們估算公司的煤炭每噸銷售收入在1-3季度24年度同比下降6.2％至人民幣618元。陝西榆林坑口6000大卡熱塊煤的平均銷售價格同比下降9.7％。
3) Cost of sales per tonne improved. Based on sales costs and sales volume, we estimate that the firm's cost of sales per tonne was Rmb404 in 1–3Q24, down 2.5% or Rmb10 YoY.
3）每噸銷售成本有所改善。根據銷售成本和銷售量，我們估算公司的每噸銷售成本在1-3季度24年度爲人民幣404元，同比下降2.5％或人民幣10。
4) In 1–3Q24, the firm's gross profit from coal sales fell 8.1% YoY to Rmb42.1bn and gross profit per tonne of coal fell 12.5% YoY to Rmb215.
4）在1-3季度24年度，公司的煤炭銷售毛利潤同比下降8.1％至人民幣421億元，每噸煤炭的毛利潤同比下降12.5％至人民幣215元。
5) In 1–3Q24, the firm's losses from fair value changes were Rmb453mn, mainly due to losses from trust products. However, the losses had narrowed in 1–3Q24 compared with the level of -Rmb3,732mn in 1–3Q23, reflecting that changes in fair value decreased after the firm reduced its exposure on investment in the secondary market and made accounting for some of its long-term investment under the equity method. In 3Q24, the firm reported profit of Rmb188mn from fair value changes, down Rmb87.83mn QoQ.
5）在1-3季度24年度，公司由於信託產品的損失而虧損4.53億元。然而，與1-3季度23年度-37.32億元的水平相比，在1-3季度24年度，虧損有所縮減，反映出公司在二級市場投資上減少風險敞口並對部分長期投資採用權益法進行會計處理後，公允價值變動減少。在第3季度24年度，公司公允價值變動獲利1.88億元，環比下降8.783億元。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Abundant resources; strong production continuity. Coal companies' cost of acquiring resources has increased markedly amid rising bidding prices for coal resources. However, Shaanxi Coal has abundant resources and ranks among the top listed companies in terms of reserves and reserve-to-output ratio; therefore, there is no need to worry about production continuity in the short to medium term. Against this backdrop, we believe the firm can grow steadily, assess access to external resources more prudently, and reasonably utilize reserve funds to achieve growth.
資源豐富，生產連續性強。 煤炭企業獲取資源的成本隨着煤炭資源拍賣價格的上漲而大幅增加。 然而，陝西煤業擁有豐富的資源，在儲量和產出比方面名列前茅；因此，在短中期內無需擔心生產連續性問題。 在這種背景下，我們認爲公司可以穩步增長，更加謹慎地評估對外部資源的獲取，併合理利用儲備資金實現增長。
Earnings stability to improve further. With the expansion of the coal- fired power business, we believe the firm will transform itself from a pure resource mining company into a comprehensive enterprise. We are upbeat on the stability of the company's earnings as the integrated coal and electricity business develops, and expect cyclical fluctuations in earnings to be further mitigated.
收入穩定性將進一步提高。 隨着煤炭業務的擴張，我們相信公司將從純資源採礦公司轉變爲綜合企業。 隨着煤炭與電力業務的整合發展，我們對公司收入穩定性感到樂觀，並預計收入的週期性波動將進一步減輕。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We maintain our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts. The stock is trading at 11.3x and 10.7x 2024e and 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our TP of Rmb27.00, implying 12.2x and 11.6x 2024e and 2025e P/E, offering 8% upside.
我們維持對2024年和2025年的盈利預測。 該股票的市盈率爲2024年和2025年分別爲11.3倍和10.7倍。 我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲27.00元人民幣，暗示2024年和2025年的市盈率分別爲12.2倍和11.6倍，爲8%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Disappointing demand recovery and/or project progress; higher-than- expected prices for acquired assets.
需求復甦低於預期和/或項目進展不盡如人意；收購資產價格高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。