DAQIN RAILWAY(601006):3Q24 RESULTS IN LINE; FUNDAMENTALS LIKELY TO TURN AROUND IN 4Q24
DAQIN RAILWAY(601006):3Q24 RESULTS IN LINE; FUNDAMENTALS LIKELY TO TURN AROUND IN 4Q24
Trends to watch3Q24 results in line with our expectations
第3季度24財年的業績符合我們的預期
Daqin Railway announced its 3Q24 results: Revenue fell 8.6% YoY and rose 1.5% QoQ to Rmb18.61bn, gross profit fell 31.3% YoY and 14.1% QoQ to Rmb3.25bn, gross margin fell 5.8ppt YoY and 3.2ppt QoQ to 17.4%, attributable net profit fell 23.3% YoY and 2.8% QoQ to Rmb2.74bn, and attributable net margin fell 2.8ppt YoY and 0.6ppt QoQ to 14.7%. The firm's results are in line with our expectations.
大秦鐵路宣佈其2024年第3季度業績：營業收入同比下降8.6%，環比增長1.5%，達到人民幣186.1億元，毛利潤同比下降31.3%，環比下降14.1%，達到人民幣32.5億元，毛利率同比下降5.8個百分點，環比下降3.2個百分點，達到17.4%，淨利潤同比下降23.3%，環比下降2.8%，達到人民幣27.4億元，淨利率同比下降2.8個百分點，環比下降0.6個百分點，達到14.7%。公司的業績符合我們的預期。
In 1-3Q24, revenue fell 9.2% YoY to Rmb55.21bn, and attributable net profit fell 22.6% YoY to Rmb8.60bn
2024年1-3季度，營業收入同比下降9.2%，達到人民幣552.1億元，淨利潤同比下降22.6%，達到人民幣86億元。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Railway transport volume of the Daqin Line declined YoY in 3Q24, but recovered MoM in October. According to the firm, freight volume of the Daqin line fell 13.2% YoY and 1.2% QoQ to about 93.52mnt in 3Q24. Data from Wind shows that the volume of coal transported by railways at Qinhuangdao Port began to recover MoM in September, growing 11.3% in September and 8.3% in October. The YoY growth turned positive to 10.8% in October. We believe the firm's fundamentals in 4Q24 may improve compared with that in 1-3Q24.
2024年第3季度，大秦線鐵路運輸量同比下降，但在十月環比增長。據公司稱，大秦線貨運量同比下降13.2%，環比下降1.2%，達到約9352萬噸。Wind數據顯示，秦港股份鐵路運輸的煤炭成交量在9月開始環比回升，9月增長11.3%，10月增長8.3%。10月同比增長轉爲正增長，達到10.8%。我們認爲公司2024年第4季度的基本面可能會有所改善，與2024年1-3季度相比。
Shareholder returns are attractive. In April, the firm announced a three- year dividend payment plan for shareholders (2023-2025). It would distribute dividends in cash each year (except in special circumstances), and the cash dividend payout ratio should not be lower than 55% of the total net profit attributable to shareholders. The firm also paid its first interim dividend this year, with a DPS of about Rmb0.13. Based on our 2024 earnings forecasts and an assumption of a 55% dividend payout ratio, we estimate the firm's dividend yield in 2024 at 4.5% (excluding convertible bonds). If all convertible bonds are converted into shares and total dividends remain unchanged, we think the firm's dividend yield in 2024 will be 4.1%.
股東回報頗具吸引力。今年四月，公司宣佈了爲期三年的股東分紅計劃（2023-2025年）。該公司每年以現金形式向股東派息（特殊情況除外），現金分紅比率不低於股東應得淨利潤的55%。公司今年還首次發放了中期股息，每股派息約人民幣0.13元。根據我們的2024年盈利預測和55%分紅比率的假設，我們估計該公司2024年的股息率爲4.5%（不包括可轉債）。如果所有可轉債轉爲股票並且總分紅維持不變，我們認爲公司2024年的股息率將爲4.1%。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Although fundamentals in 4Q24 may improve compared with the level in 1-3Q24, we leave our earnings forecasts unchanged for 2024 and 2025 at Rmb9.64bn (-19.2% YoY) and Rmb10.66bn (+10.6% YoY), considering settlement projects at year end. The stock is trading at 12.3x and 11.1x 2024e and 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price of Rmb7.3, implying 13.8x and 12.5x 2024e and 2025e P/E, implying 12.1% upside. Current share price corresponds to a dividend yield of 4.5% (not considering convertible bonds) in 2024.
雖然2024年第4季度的基本面可能會與2024年1-3季度的水平相比有所改善，但考慮到年底的結算項目，我們將2024年和2025年的盈利預測保持不變，分別爲96.4億元（同比下降19.2%）和106.6億元（同比增長10.6%）。該股票的2024年預估市盈率爲12.3倍，2025年預估市盈率爲11.1倍。我們維持OUTPERFORM評級，目標價爲人民幣7.3元，對應2024年和2025年的市盈率爲13.8倍和12.5倍，漲幅預計爲12.1%。當前股價對應2024年的股息率爲4.5%（不考慮可轉債）。
Risks
風險
Falling demand for coal used for electricity generation; changes in cost settlement mechanism.
煤炭用於發電的需求下降；成本結算機制發生變化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
