维持盈利预测，维持“增持”评级。24Q3公司业绩符合预期，并公告合并日日顺物流，考虑到整合批复时间，不调整盈利预测，维持24-26 年盈利预测，预计公司24-26 年EPS 分别为2.03/2.28/2.51 元（由于股本变动，原2.02/2.27/2.51 元），同比+15%/12%/10%，跟随近期行业可比公司估值提升，参考公司家电行业龙头地位，给予24年18X PE，上调目标价至36.54 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24Q3 performance was in line with expectations. There was no increase on the revenue side due to pressure on Baidian's main business in July-August. There has been significant improvement since September. Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate month-on-month; profitability is rising steadily on the basis of cost optimization.
Key points of investment:
Maintain profit forecasts and maintain an “gain” rating. 24Q3's performance was in line with expectations and announced the merger of Rishun Logistics. Considering the integration approval period and maintaining the 24-26 profit forecast, the company's 24-26 EPS is expected to be 2.03/2.28/2.51 yuan respectively (due to share capital changes, the original 2.02/2.27/2.51 yuan), +15%/12%/10% year-on-year, following recent increases in the valuation of comparable companies in the industry, referring to the company's leading position in the home appliance industry, and increasing the target price to 36.54 yuan.
24Q3 results are in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 202.971 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +2.17% year on year, net profit of 15.154 billion yuan, or +15.25% year on year; of these, in 2024 Q3, revenue was 67.349 billion yuan, +0.47% year over year, and net profit to mother 4.734 billion yuan, +13.15% year over year.
Revenue: Domestic sales declined slightly, and 24Q4 is expected to improve month-on-month. Looking at domestic and foreign sales, since domestic home appliance retail sales were under pressure from July to August, the improvement was relatively significant in September. We expect the 24Q3 company's domestic sales revenue to be -5% to 0% year-on-year, overseas demand is relatively steady, and the company's share in emerging markets will continue to increase. Overseas revenue is expected to be +0-5% year-on-year, and the South Asian emerging market is +30% year-on-year. In 24Q4, domestic trade-in and national supplements are driving demand, and overseas demand remains steady. We expect the company's domestic sales and overall revenue growth to improve sequentially.
Profit: Digital reforms drive efficiency improvements, and cost control is obvious. The domestic market continues to promote digital transformation on the procurement, R&D and manufacturing side, and establish a digital production and marketing collaboration system; overseas markets enhance cost competitiveness by building digital procurement platforms and increase capacity utilization through global supply chain collaboration, and promote steady quarterly year-on-year growth. On the cost side, the 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 0.5 pct. Thanks to the company's promotion of digital transformation, efficiency improvements in marketing resource allocation, logistics distribution, and warehousing operations. Subsequent integration is expected to further optimize efficiency in logistics and warehousing, reduce unnecessary expenses, improve operational efficiency, and help continue to improve profitability.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, cost pressure remains unabated, and real estate completion performance transmission affects post-cycle demand
